What is your prediction for the charter referendum – use percentages? For the tie-breaker, predict total votes cast, too.
Popularity: 22% [?]
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Charter vote predictions
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25 Responses to “Charter vote predictions”
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Anonaly:
Quit whining and go to bed…
Money Wins, Anonaly: your IP addresses have been reported to the Strong Mayor Security Forces, and you have been found guilty of sedition by a unanimous panel of wealthy businessmen. Have fun toiling in the salt mines.
But no, seriously, don’t be sore losers.
Now, according to all of the pro-charter folks, we shall have no poverty, have no corruption, and the sun will shine on all of our city government. I can’t wait!!
55% to 45% Wow! Bigger margin than I ever expected! Good job guys! Deedee Ritchie, Travis Peterson and Crystal Spencer, this couldn’t have happened without you guys. All of the hard work that you put into this, you were amazing. And this community thanks you from the bottom of our heart. <3
Looks like those with the big bucks were able to buy themselves a strong mayor.
52% – 48% Yes
John, great minds think alike!
6000 voted in a stunning defeat
Rick, I think the total will be somewhere between yours and mine, but I also believe yours and my percentage will be on the low end. I beleive the 53% YES will be the minimum, but I will accept less as long as the YES side prevails.
Well, from the look of things around town, No Boss Mayor seems to have secured the ‘vacant lot’ and ‘public right-of-way’ votes. Those are two very influential demographics.
My prediction is 53-47 “Yes.” Total vote cast 13901.
Two voters in my household for yes.
Mother-in-law and her friend yes.
100% of the eligible voters in my church=yes.
Next door neighbor yes.
Poker circle is all city eligible and all yes…including the cop.
The only no’s I’ve heard from of those I’m close to are from a firefighter buddy of mine and two really old people around the corner who still think the black citizens, they call the N-word, should not be allowed to vote or have children.
Where’s Bill Davison when the no-progress people need him?
Keep in mind that districts 3 & 4 went heavy in favor of the CMP. You would think they would be more progressively minded and also go heavy in favor of the new charter.
Also, I think the folk in favor of the referendum are going to be more motivated than those that are against, and hence more likely to take the effort to vote.
I still think its going to squeak through.
Total votes 13,332 (7,067 YES [53%], 6,265 NO [47%])
District 1 (48-52)
District 2 (53-47)
District 3 (61-39)
District 4 (64-36)
District 5 (31-69)
District 6 (50-50)
District 7 (42-58)
Four voters in our households (Districts 3&4)
Ages 54, 57, 65, 67
All voted Yes!
The young professionals not vote ? Say it isn’t so.
My prediction: Jerry Maygarden 1, Progress zero.
I also think NO in by a 57-43 percentile.
It appears like (at least to a layman such as I am) Jeff has sound figures in the fact that the yes side needs those higher percentages in the non-minority populations in the 25-35 year olds. I just do not think that most will vote. The older folks seem to take their voting more seriously, especially veterans and women.
In order to pass the YES folks need
District 1 45%
District 2 45%
District 3 56%
District 4 56%
District 5 45%
District 6 48%
District 7 50%
Key issues we have noted.
Over 50% of those voting in 5,6,7 are white in what many consider African American districts. In District 6, 62%.
If the African American community follows their councilmembers lead it still may not be enough to take the district.
District 2 has taken Sam Hall’s lead in the past, will it hold?
District 1 was a huge fan of term limits when we canvassed the neighborhoods.
If YES is to prevail I thin k Distict 3 and 4 have to carry the load and be 55% plus in both.
Oh I forgot, total number votes cast = 13,250
56-44 No. I am shocked at the amount of disinformation out there as well as apathy. I don’t think the pro-people explained their side well enough as I have talked to several folks who said either the issue was too complicated or it didn’t matter. I voted Yes and I hope my prediction is wrong.
Nope.
52-48 YES!!
Passes by 1 or 2 points.
There you have there may only be 13,800.00 people vote on an election to change the form of government.
Voter apathy wins or lots of people are happy with the status quo
My official prediction, posted moments ago, is a 53-47 no vote.
Personally, I voted yes, and hope my prediction is wrong, but the older turnout drives that prediction.
Total votes cast I think should end up around 13,800.