2016 Election

Tampa Bay Times picks six counties to watch, none in NWFL

November 8, 2016

The Tampa Bay Times has identified six counties to watch for this year’s presidential race:

1. Pinellas County: “Barack Obama won it by nearly 8 percentage points in 2008 and nearly 5 in 2012 — but Trump stands to do especially well with working-class Pinellas voters.”

2. Pasco County: “Mitt Romney won it by nearly 6 points four years ago, and Trump at various times this year has been remarkably strong even in areas where Democrats win elections.”

3. Hillsborough County: “Obama won it by nearly 7 percentage points in 2012. If Trump leads early on in Hillsborough, or is even close behind Clinton, it could be a bad night statewide for Clinton’s Hillsborough-based Florida campaign.”

4. Miami-Dade: “Obama crushed Romney in Miami-Dade by nearly 24 percentage points — more than 208,000 votes in a state he won by 74,000. If Clinton isn’t way up in Miami-Dade — at least 20 percentage points — Trump is probably having a very good night.”

5. Duval County: “Romney in 2012 won by nearly 4 percentage points, and George W. Bush in 2004 won by 16. If it looks like a 15-point margin for Trump, Clinton fans should worry.”

6. Volusia County: “Romney narrowly won the county on the eastern end of the I-4 corridor, which has been leaning toward the GOP lately. If either side is comfortably ahead in Volusia early on, that bodes well for them statewide.”

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