Each time a county charter has appeared on the ballot, it has been defeated by overwhelming margins in precincts outside Pensacola’s city limits, particularly in the northern and western parts of Escambia County.
- As of Aug. 31, Escambia County has 205,680 registered voters, and only 18.4% reside in the City of Pensacola. Nearly 45% of the county’s voters live in District 1 (48,399 voters, represented by Commissioner Steve Stroberger), which covers the Beulah and Perdido areas, and District 5 (43,805 voters, represented by Commissioner Steven Barry), which covers the northern part of the county.
- If we include District 2 (34,969 voters, represented by Commissioner Mike Kohler), the three districts have 127,173 votes, or 62%. In two years, these three districts could have two-thirds of the county’s voters.
In 1995, when the charter failed by only 56 votes, Escambia County had less than 143K registered voters. Nine years later, when the charter lost by more than 10,000 votes, the total number of registered voters had grown to 172,575. Adding more voters didn’t help.
Another interesting factor is that the previous referendum votes were special elections and were not held during a local primary or general election. The voter turnouts were low:
- 1979: 30%
- 1995: 22%
- 2004: 29%
In past referendums, constitutional officers, such as Comptroller Joe Flowers and Tax Collector Matt Langley Bell, fought the proposed charters.
Math Assumption
Let’s assume the voter turnout for a charter referendum in 2028 is 30%—that’s 61,704 votes cast and 30,853 to pass.
The charter receives 40% of the votes in districts 1, 2 and 5: 15,261 votes.
If Commissioner Lumon May’s District 3 votes 50% in favor of the charter, that’s an additional 5,292 votes.
For the charter to pass, it will need 10,300 votes from Commissioner Ashlee Hofberger’s District 4, where most City of Pensacola voters live. That would be 79% of D4 votes, which appears impossible.
Bottom line: The Pro-charter camp cannot win without winning Stroberger, Kohler and Barry’s districts or garnering more than 45% of the votes. The constitutional officers will need to support the final draft presented to the voters.