Bondsquawk.com reports that investors believe there is a higher probability of BP defaulting within one year than in five. BP was spending $6 million a day when the spill began, but that cost has soared to $100 million a day as the slick has spread and efforts to cap the leaking well have intensified. If these numbers are to be believed, it will cost BP an additional $4 billion (at least) before it completes drilling two relief wells that it claims will stop the leak completely. Read INVERTED CDS CURVE SIGNALS TROUBLE FOR BP