NBC’s political reporter Matt Dixon thinks former Rep. Matt Gaetz is seriously considering Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial race—and it’s all about political mathematics.
- Who is Matt Dixon? He is a senior national politics reporter for NBC News, based in Florida. Before joining NBC News, Dixon served as the Florida bureau chief for POLITICO for eight years and was previously the bureau chief for The Florida Times-Union for four years. He is widely recognized as one of the best-known and most well-sourced political reporters covering Florida and national politics.
The Three-Way Split Strategy
Despite President Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Byron Donalds, Dixon suggests Gaetz sees a strategic opening. With Donalds in the race and Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis potentially entering, Gaetz appears to be calculating that a three-way primary could create the perfect opportunity for an underdog victory.
As Dixon notes, veteran Republican operatives believe Gaetz recognizes that “a three-way primary in what is now a Republican-leaning state can open up the opportunity for a dark horse candidate to win the GOP nomination with just roughly 30% of the vote.”
A longtime Republican operative shared that Gaetz is “thinking ‘Why not me?’ on a double [Trump] endorsement.” The former congressman has been notably supportive of Casey DeSantis recently—a shift from his previous criticism around the Hope Florida controversy.
Perfect Timing
Dixon writes that Casey DeSantis was “once seen as almost certain to run” but the Hope Florida scandal “dampened that enthusiasm.” If she enters weakened by controversy, it levels the playing field for alternatives like Gaetz.
- The political vacuum is real. Dixon reports that key DeSantis operatives from Ron’s failed 2024 presidential campaign—including pollster Ryan Tyson and top fundraiser Makenzi Mahler—are sitting out a potential Casey DeSantis run, creating an opening for Gaetz to build his own operation.
Most importantly, Dixon frames this as Gaetz’s opportunity for political resurrection. After his attorney general nomination collapsed amid sexual misconduct allegations (which he denies), a successful gubernatorial campaign would represent a remarkable comeback.
- Gaetz may this race as his chance “to re-emerge,” transforming from a controversial figure whose federal ambitions were derailed into a legitimate statewide candidate.
The Bottom Line
Dixon’s reporting reveals that despite Trump’s endorsement of Donalds, the Florida GOP field remains “unsettled.” Gaetz appears to be betting that in a fractured primary, name recognition and strategic positioning could overcome traditional advantages.
Whether this calculation proves correct remains to be seen, but Dixon’s analysis shows Gaetz isn’t just floating trial balloons—he’s conducting serious political math that could make him a formidable wild card in Florida’s 2026 race.
Read Matt Gaetz flirts with a run for Florida governor, adding a bit of chaos to the race
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