A new national survey by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research USA reveals that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former U.S. President Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in a 2024 presidential election matchup. The poll also highlights complex views on democracy among American voters.
Harris and Trump are both at 46% among all voters in the latest Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA poll. Diving into key demographic groups reveals striking differences:
- Harris holds a strong lead among women with 49% compared to Trump’s 42%
- Among Black voters, Harris commands a significant advantage at 67%, while Trump trails at 22%
- In the Hispanic demographic, Harris secures 54% support, leaving Trump with 37%.
- Trump leads with 18 to 35-year-old voters, 45% to 36%
- When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included, Harris has a 1% lead among all voters, which is within the margin of error
“While voters may be responding to the prospect of a new candidate in these results, they are also not sure what the Harris campaign messaging is,” said Luzmarina Garcia Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “But the lead up to the election will clarify that picture.”
The poll assessed life satisfaction among all voters, revealing that 67% reported being “very happy” or “quite happy” with their current lives. Although in line with historical trends, happiness has been represented by a U-shaped curve, with youngest and oldest adults the happiest with a dip in happiness during mid-life. Older voters (65+) are significantly happier (73%) than other age groups, including 18 to 35-year-olds (65%). By demographic categories, happiness varied:
- Black voters (75%)
- White, college-educated (71%)
- White, non-college educated (64%)
- Hispanic voters (63%)
The biggest difference in happiness is evident in political affiliation and intended 2024 votes:
- 80% of Democratic voters report being happy
- 80% of voters who intend to vote for Harris report being happy
- 61% of Republicans voters report being happy
- 57% percent of voters with an intention to vote for Trump report being happy
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