In 2004, Democratic Senator John Kerry got 124 more votes than John Edwards. Kerry went on to win the Democratic presidential nomination and get his butt kicked in the general election by GW Bush. The Caucuses killed the Howard Dean presidential chances when he came in a distant third. Dean was the frontrunner in the months leading up to the caucuses.
The caucuses are important in determining who remains in the race and who drops out. But the winners don’t necessarily win the general election. Neither Ronald Reagan nor Bill Clinton won prior to their first terms.