Before I start, I think it would be good to explain a few things about political commentary. Based on some of the comments being posted on the House District 3 race, we have few rabid GOP posters that don’t quite understand what it is….I guess too many hours of listening to Rush Limbaugh and Luke McCoy have fried the brain cells.
Political commentary isn’t personal. It’s my observations of the facts and events surrounding the event. I have certain beliefs and values that guide my statements that may differ from you and the candidates. I do use satire, parody and humor. I do not hate or personally dislike any of the candidates.
Whoever is elected I assure you that I will make fun of them one day. He/she will have the opportunity to be a Winner one week and a loser the next in the Independent News.I don’t care if you agree with me. I do hope I make you think about your choices.
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This race, especially on the GOP, is a test of various campaign tools. Mailers were used heavily. The automated phone calls were also used. Polls – both regular and push types – were used. The wives waded in with letters and automated calls. The clout of Joe Scarborough is also very much at play. We saw our first ECO try to help a local candidate.
Military service, Ronald Reagan, God, and Conservatism were touted. Don Gaetz – popular state senator – endorsed a candidate. The Gulf Breeze Rotary members – who once controled a huge bloc of votes in GB – has heavily endorsed fellow member Clay Ford. Do they still have influence? Who will get the Pensacola Christian College vote?
On the Democrat side, will John Wyche lose to another white woman? DeeDee Ritchie beat him in 1998. Ritchie has endorsed Liz Campbell. Will it be enough? Wyche is not the best politician or leader in the African-American community, but he is their candidate. Will they get out to vote?
Campbell has the union support and did okay in the Nov. 6 general election. Will those votes stay with her? Her candidacy is a test for the local unions – can they become relevant? Besides DeeDee, Campbell did get financial support from two other big local Dems – Buzz Ritchie and Melinda Hilterbrand, but where are the other Dems – Bob Kerrigan, Fred Levin, Ron Melton, etc. ?
Unfortunately most of the Democratic battle has been done quietly away from the media and in the trenches. Neither candidate has any money to poll so we have little indication of what will happen.
Polling isn’t the problem on the Republican side of the House race. It’s tight and, yes, Banjanin just might win. But, heck, it’s better to have him in Tallahassee than on the county commission.
There have been several posts on this blog about signs being stolen from yards. It’s surprising that few remember the horrible time Grover Robinson had with missing signs when he ran against Banjanin. (See Who is stealing Grover’s signs? ) Don’t assume TomKat is this meek politico. He’s a campaign veteran and has some fans that will do anything for their guy to win.
The other interesting set of comments have been those that have tried to equate Lyn Hart’s huge support from the RV association and the ESO – Florida Main St. Merchants – and the mystery NW Florida Conservatives with George Scarborough’s support from the Pensacola area establishment – Collier Merrill, John Carr, Eric Nickelson, Lewis Bear, Appleyards, etc. I guess money is money. It’s the lifeblood of a campaign.
However I don’t see these group of contributors as the same. The Hart supporters want you to see the Scarborough supporters as evil and what’s wrong with Pensacola. Merrill did a fantastic job on the UWF Board of Trustees, by all accounts. Carr helped get the Pensacola Children’s Chorus off the ground in the 1990’s. Nickelson helped launched Miracle Kids Camp. The Bear and Appleyard families have done so much for the community you can’t list it all.
I don’t always agree with some of the individual views and positions of these people, but their commitment to the community goes without question. In fact, a few have been quite angry with me at times.
What has the RV association done for the community – except sell us RVs after Hurricane Ivan? Does the FL Main St. Merchants ECO care about us?
Bringing the wives into the campaign has been an interesting twist – Sara Scarborough, Peggy Banjanin, Carol Ford and Nan Hart. They’re actually more likebable candidates than their husbands. The race would be even tighter if this quartet was running.
Then there’s the person in the race, but not the candidate – Joe Scarborough. Nearly every poll has had some question about the former Congressman and whether he is liked or disliked. Joe has polled much better than Banjanin, Ford, Hart and the Democrats would like you to believe. His approval rating is solid.
I don’t believe George being Joe’s brother will hurt him tomorrow. Joe’s endorsement and vigorous support didn’t hurt David Stafford when he ran in 2004 for the Esc. County Supervisor of Elections. It won’t hurt now.
Do age and experience play a factor? The winner of this race could serve for 10 years and become speaker of the state house. Scarborough is the youngest with kids in local public schools. He has appeal with the younger voters – many who don’t remember brother Joe as congressman, but know him as a national TV personality.
Ford & Banjanin have the most government and real military experience – which are assets in this area. Hart has lived here 48 years – he and his wife Nan have built strong ties in the community. His experience is in business – banking, real estate & insurance – Not sure he wins based on that.
In the end, this campaign will be won by who gets the most votes to the polls tomorrow. All the mailers, signs, ads and posts to this blog don’t win races. Campaign organizations will be critical.
The two best GOP campaign organizations are those of Ford and Scarborough – with an edge to Scarborough who has Nan Weaver, a veteran of Joe’s and Esc. Sheriff Ron McNesby’s campaigns, in his camp. Ford had 1000 signs ready to go, a campaign hq rented and knows how to run an organized campaign, too.
I see the race between Ford and Scarborough tomorrow – with a slight edge to Scarborough. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if TomKat slipped in – a small turnout helps Banjanin.
On the Dem side, it’s a toss up.