Florida's appeal hits the skids; Is Pensacola the unicorn?

I'm your huckleberry

According to Redfern, the flow of U.S. residents moving to Florida and other Sun Belt states slowed significantly in 2024. This marks a dramatic shift from the pandemic-era migration boom that saw thousands flocking to the Sunshine State. However, the greater Pensacola area may have bucked this trend.

Tampa Leads the Decline: Tampa experienced the most dramatic slowdown among the 50 most populous U.S. metros. In 2024, Tampa had a net inflow of just over 10,000 residents—less than one-third of the previous year’s 35,000-person net inflow. This staggering drop represents the biggest migration decline in the country.

Miami’s Outflow Worsens: “The Magic City” saw its net domestic migration drop by nearly 17,000 from 2023 to 2024. Miami experienced a net outflow of 67,418 residents in 2024.

Orlando and Fort Lauderdale Also Affected: Orlando saw its migration numbers plummet as well, going from a healthy inflow of over 16,000 residents in 2023 to a meager 779 in 2024. Fort Lauderdale’s already negative migration worsened, with its net outflow increasing from about 15,000 to over 26,000.

What’s Driving the Exodus?

“People used to move to Florida partly because they could get a deal. Now, people can’t afford to move here,” explains Bryan Carnaggio, a Redfin Premier agent.

“The first questions from out-of-staters are, ‘How bad are the hurricanes? How high are insurance rates?'”

Rising Housing Costs: Although housing prices in Florida are now flattening or falling, they rose dramatically during the pandemic. The affordability gap between Florida and traditionally expensive cities has significantly narrowed, eliminating one of Florida’s main attractions.

Climate Concerns and Insurance Crisis: Florida’s increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes and other climate disasters have made the state less appealing to potential residents. This climate risk has triggered skyrocketing insurance premiums and HOA fees, further exacerbating housing affordability issues.

Return to Office Policies: The pandemic-era remote work boom allowed many Americans to relocate to Florida’s sunny climate. However, with companies increasingly requiring in-person work, many potential migrants have lost the freedom to move, and some pandemic transplants are returning to their original cities.

The Pensacola Miracle?

According to Macrotrends, the Pensacola metro area has seen steady population growth over the past three years:

2022: 357,000, a 0.28% increase from 2021.
2023: 359,000, a 0.56% increase from 2022.
2024: 361,000, a 0.56% increase from 2023.

However, homebuilders are seeing a slowdown, and the loss of remote workers could show a greater impact in the coming months as they move back to their out-of-state headquarters.

Your comments are welcomed, but there are some rules to follow:

(1) Be Nice. No comments that slander another, no racism, no sexism, no personal attacks.

(2) No Harrassing Comments.

(3) No Libel. That’s saying something is not true about someone. Don’t do it.

(4) Keep it clean. Nothing vulgar, obscene, or sexually related. No profanity or obvious substitutions.

(5) I reserve the right to remove any comments that violate our rules or are inappropriate. I am not responsible for what is posted. Comments may not appear right away until they are approved by a moderator.

(6) Limit your comments to the subject in this story only, and limit comments to 1,500 characters or less. Do not post copyrighted material. Comments will not be added to stories that are over five days old.

(7) No posts may advertise a commercial business, political candidate, or political group. Links in a comment aren’t allowed.

8) Commenting too many times may result in your comments not being allowed. Readers will begin to ignore your views.

9) Email me if you believe a comment violates any of these rules, and it will be deleted.

Florida’s appeal hits the skids; Pensacola may be the unicorn

What’s Driving the Exodus?

The Pensacola Miracle?

Rules for Comments

Archives

Walker Holmes Books

Inweekly Newsletter

Links