We got a copy of this executive summary of a recent of House District 3:
A recent poll of 300 likely general election voters by Schroth, Eldon & Associates shows challenger Lumon May in a statistical tie with incumbent Clay Ford in a first vote and then climbing to a near two to one lead after information. Coming from an isolated corner of the district, Clay Ford struggles to achieve the name identification separation between him and his opponent that an incumbent would expect to enjoy against a newcomer like May. This is more troubling for Ford as he carries an upside down number of his re-elect question with nearly twice as many definitely set to vote for someone else than definite to vote to reelect him.
They weren’t lying. In the first ballot test, May is right on Ford’s heels at 37% to Ford’s 38% with 25% undecided. It gets worse for Ford. After providing information on May’s and Ford’s positive agendas, likely Republican criticisms of May and detailing Ford’s record, May climbs to a 47% lead with Ford at 24%.
Lumon May is a very strong politician for a first time candidate and Ford carries more than his share of baggage for a man who dreams of being Speaker someday. It is possible that better news for May awaits as the poll sampled African-Americans at only 21% and not the expected 24-25% turnout that might occur with Obama on the top of the ticket.
The poll was conducted from August 13-17, 2008. Party registration among the respondents was 46% Democrat, 40% Republican and 14% Independent.