Rick's Blog

Full Mayoral Poll

The poll focuses on Pensacola city voters that are registered as Republican or No Party Affiliation. Those surveyed were contacted on landlines,  primarily white (89%) and 45 or older (61%).

These are the overall results:

Total %
D.C  Reeves 143 34.8%
Steve Sharp 121 29.4%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 55 13.4%
Sherri Myers 53 12.9%
Undecided 39 9.5%

Democrats and Black voters might be the swing votes in a tight primary. Escambiavotes.com doesn’t have the demographic for 2018 city primaries, but county-wide, Democrats made up 36% of the votes cast. The biggest draw for Democrats on Aug. 23 is the governor’s race – Charlie Crist vs. Nikki Fried.  Four years ago, both parties had contested primaries.

In August 2018, 16,275 votes were cast in the mayor’s race.  In 2010, 12,985 votes were cast.  There wasn’t a mayoral primary in 2014.

The split among registered city voters is:

Democrats: 15,842 (38.9%)
Republicans: 15,879 (38.9%)
NPA: 8,239 (20.2%)
Other: 809 (2.0%)
Total: 40,769

Racial split:
White: 29,246 (71.7%)
Black: 8,236 (20.2%)
Hispanic: 902 (2.2%)
Other: 2,385 (5.8%)

As with any primary, the results will depend on who gets out the vote best.  Read Reeves and Sharp are in a statistical dead heat going into the Primary Election

Here are the Crosstabs:
Gender: Male
D.C  Reeves 82 38.3%
Steve Sharp 57 26.6%
Sherri Myers 34 12.1%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 26 15.9%
Undecided 15 7.0%
214
Gender: Female 
D.C  Reeves 61 31.4%
Steve Sharp 63 32.5%
Sherri Myers 19 9.8%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 27 13.9%
Undecided 24 12.4%
194
AGE GROUPS
21 & Under
D.C  Reeves 4 33.3%
Steve Sharp 4 33.3%
Sherri Myers 1 8.3%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 2 16.7%
Undecided 1 8.3%
12
22-34
D.C  Reeves 31 45.6%
Steve Sharp 20 29.4%
Sherri Myers 4 5.9%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 10 14.7%
Undecided 3 4.4%
68
35-44
D.C  Reeves 28 34.6%
Steve Sharp 22 27.2%
Sherri Myers 9 11.1%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 10 12.3%
Undecided 12 14.8%
81
45-64
D.C  Reeves 53 33.8%
Steve Sharp 42 26.8%
Sherri Myers 29 18.5%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 20 12.7%
Undecided 13 8.3%
157
65+
D.C  Reeves 27 29.0%
Steve Sharp 33 35.5%
Sherri Myers 10 10.8%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 13 14.0%
Undecided 10 10.8%
93
RACE
White
D.C  Reeves 130 31.6%
Steve Sharp 110 26.8%
Sherri Myers 44 10.7%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 46 11.2%
Undecided 36 8.8%
366
Black
D.C  Reeves 6 35.3%
Steve Sharp 4 23.5%
Sherri Myers 4 23.5%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 3 17.6%
Undecided 0 0.0%
17
Other
D.C  Reeves 4 33.3%
Steve Sharp 2 16.7%
Sherri Myers 0 0.0%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 4 33.3%
Undecided 2 16.7%
12
PARTY
NPA
D.C  Reeves 42 33.9%
Steve Sharp 39 31.5%
Sherri Myers 20 16.1%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 15 12.1%
Undecided 8 6.5%
124
Republican
D.C  Reeves 101 35.2%
Steve Sharp 82 28.6%
Sherri Myers 33 11.5%
Jewel Cannada-Wynn 40 13.9%
Undecided 31 10.8%
287

 

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