The 7 am NOAA advisory: A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.
Escambia Public Safety Director Eric Gilmore will be my guest on WCOA this morning at 8 a.m.
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this
morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves
inland.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING FRANCINE…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated
to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon
or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward
across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.
Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this
morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves
inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil
platform near the center recently reported a pressure of 977.7 mb
(28.87 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving
in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS…4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border…3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
