The top of the ballot state-wide races is close. There is no doubt about that. And with all of the electioneering and slinging of truths and falsehoods, the snapshot we have is very telling of how evenly divided the electorate is at this point in history.
According to an Inweekly/Political Matrix poll of 1,193 likely Florida voters taken between October 28-30 we found the following:
In the U.S. Senate race, Bill Nelson had 47.3 percent thinly leading Rick Scott with 46.9 percent, leaving only 2.6Â percent uncertain for whom they will vote on election day. The gap between to the well-known candidates was tighter than it was a month ago, when our polling had Nelson with a 1.3 point lead.
| 10/30/18 | 9/30/18 | |
| Bill Nelson | 47.3% | 45.9% |
| Rick Scott | 46.9% | 44.6% |
| Gap | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| Undecided | 2.6% | 9.5% |
Now, when it came to the race for governor, we found our poll was slightly different from the other statewide polls with Ron DeSantis leading with 50.5 percent followed by Andrew Gillum with 43.3 percent and leaving 6.2 percent of those polled still uncertain or unaware of who they want to get behind. DeSantis gained 5 points on his lead since our Sept. 30 poll.
| 10/30/18 | 9/30/18 | |
| Ron DeSantis | 50.5% | 46.7% |
| Andrew Gillum | 43.3% | 44.5% |
| Gap | 7.2% | 2.2% |
| Undecided | 6.2% | 8.9% |
When he was in Pensacola yesterday, Gillum reminded his supporters that most polls had him trailing Gwen Graham going into the August primary.
“I’m not one for believing polls,” said Gillum. “Polls have never been my friend. And the primary, probably, was the reason why our visit last time was so sober. There was not a single poll showing me capturing the Democratic nomination. Not one.”
He continued, “The day before election day we were said to be seven points behind the then front-runner, and we ended four points ahead. Now, we didn’t have an 11-point swing over night. I don’t believe that for anything.”
Gillum credited the swing to getting new voters to the polls.
“We turned out 150,000 voters in the primary that either had never voted before or had not voted in the previous three elections…150,000,” he said. “Just so you understand what that number means, y’all I’m sure y’all know it well, but the last two Democrats running for Governor lost by less than 70,000 votes.”
Gillum added, “It is our intention in this general election to double that number north of 300,000 unlikely voters participating in voting for this ticket. If we do that, and I believe we will, we will win this race.”
Once we started polling the down ballot races, we found that many more people are uncertain or undecided as to who to vote for, or even who the candidates who are running this race are. With that being said, these races are still wide-open.
For the race for attorney general, we found that Ashley Moody had a strong lead with 40.7 percent while her opponent, Sean Shaw had 27.6 percent and 31.8 percent were uncertain as to who they were or were just undecided. Moody’s lead increased slightly since we polled at the end of September.
| 10/30/18 | 9/30/18 | |
| Ashley Moody | 40.7% | 33.1% |
| Sean Shaw | 27.6% | 18.3% |
| Gap | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| Undecided | 31.8% | 48.6% |
Now, when it came to the Chief Financial Officer race, we saw Patronis leading with 33.1 percent followed by Ring with 22.6 percent and 44.3 percent still undecided or just unaware of who the individuals running for this seat were. This was the first time we polled the CFO and Agriculture Commissioner races.
| 10/30/18 | |
| Jimmy Patronis | 33.1% |
| Jeremy Ring | 22.6% |
| Gap | 10.5% |
| Undecided | 44.3% |
When we took a look at the race for Agriculture Commissioner, we found that although Matt Caldwell is ahead, the lead is not that large when compared to the undecideds and unaware voters in this race. Caldwell had 36.6 percent, Fried had 24.5 percent and the uncertain or unaware voters were at 38.9 percent of the vote.
| 10/30/18 | |
| Matt Caldwell | 36.6% |
| Nikki Fried | 24.5% |
| Gap | 12.1% |
| Undecided | 38.9% |
METHODOLOGY:
The persons sampled were likely Florida voters with a voting score of 100 percent for the general election cycles. The voters were called using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system during the hours of 12-8 p.m. Oct. 28-30. The Margin of Error for this study is +/- 3.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.
