A little-known candidate for the District 4 Escambia County Commission won the GOP primary and later the general election in 2024, with help from Clerk Pam Childers, Rep. Michelle Salzman, and the sentiment that the Board of County Commissioners needed a female voice.
- Ashlee Hofberger also tapped into the MAGA movement, bashing her closest GOP rival, Walker Wilson, with a black-faced mailer accusing him of being part of a mythical Downtown Democratic Machine.
In the 2024 GOP Primary, only 8,384 votes were cast, and Hofberger received 37%.
- Ashlee Hofberger: 3,155 37%
- Walker Wilson: 2,742 33%
- Buck Mitchell: 2,487, 30%
In the 2024 General Election, with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, Hofberger received 62% of the votes (21,662), easily defeating Democrat Ron Helms.
Different Story in 2026
This election cycle, Hofberger hasn’t generated the same excitement among Republicans. Her message that her values and Church are better and more aligned with District 4 voters than Joe Vinson’s doesn’t appear to be working. Her mailer may have backfired.
- As of yesterday, only one in three registered Republicans in her district had voted, while 43.5% of registered Democrats had. I don’t believe Hofberger is getting all the Republican votes based on the significant number of Republicans who turned out for David Jolly’s rally at Seville Quarter last Monday.
- Even if she did, she would trail Vinson if the NPA candidate got all the Democrat and NPA votes—Hofberger: 7,099 to Vinson: 7,766.
See how District 4 voting stands today compared to 2022:
| Votes Cast—1 Day Before Election Day | |||
| District 4 | 2026 | 2022 | |
| Republcans | 7,099 | 7,822 | -723 |
| Democrats | 5,295 | 4,687 | 608 |
| NPA | 2,470 | 2,151 | 319 |
| Total | 14,864 | 14,660 | 204 |
Election Day
November 3 will be a wild day for District 4. The result depends on which candidate has the best ground game and gets their voters to the polls.
- An NPA candidate has never won an Escambia County Commission race, so history favors Hofberger.
Democratic strategist Steve Schale wrote on his Substack that Democratic turnout is approaching 49%, Republican turnout is 38%, and NPA voters make up 22% of the electorate so far. Escambia County’s District 4 is trending similarly:
| District 4 | Turnout |
| Republcans | 33.2% |
| Democrats | 43.5% |
| NPA | 24.3% |
| Total | 34.0% |
Schale has said a Democrat can win statewide only if Democratic turnout exceeds Republican turnout, NPA voters favor Democrats by about 20 points, and more Republicans vote Democratic than the reverse. He writes that the first condition is in place and the NPA pool “looks” more Democratic based on where those voters are casting ballots. Whether Republicans cross over will be known only after Tuesday.
Will this apply to District 4?