The latest New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll shows a divided electorate in Florida when it comes to this year’s presidential election.
Whites Trump 51% Clinton 30%
Blacks Trump 4% Clinton 82%
Hispanics Trump 21% Clinton 61%
Florida is the key battleground state for Trump. He has to win the state’s electoral votes to win the presidency.
The modeling suggests that for Clinton to win Florida she will need to draw to the polls those who are considered likely voters. The poll gives her a 10-point lead among registered voters who did not participate in the 2014 midterm elections. She also has a lead among every group of voters who are less than 90 percent likely to vote.
It may seem like a stretch, but it has happened before.
In 2012, the Romney campaign was confident that black community and young college-age voters would not come out for Obama. Many, including Karl Rove, predicted a GOP victory. They were wrong.
Read White Voters Keep Trump’s Hopes Alive in Must-Win Florida
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BTW: For those who questioned the validity of the Quality of Life Survey because its sample size was 800 people, the New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll sampled 867 likely voters in Florida.
