The NOAA on Thursday upgraded its hurricane forecast from “near-normal” to “above-normal.” The number of predicted named storms jumped from six to 11 to 14 to 21 named storms. The hurricane prediction increased to six to 11, up from five to nine. Forecasters expect two to five major hurricanes.
- Hurricane season started June 1 and will end Nov. 30. Named storms are defined as having wind speeds of 39 mph or higher.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration press release said, “Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.”
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When the season got underway in June, NOAA scientists said odds had improved that a potentially significant El Nino weather phenomenon would form, which typically means less tropical activity.
- Thursday’s release said, “So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.”
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes and three reaching major status.
For more on NOAA, visit the Hurricane Center. For local info, visit Be Ready Escambia.