Inweekly polled likely city of Pensacola voters at the end of last week. According to the Political Matrix poll of 457 likely voters, Grover Robinson has a 10-point lead over Brian Spencer in the race to be Pensacola’s next mayor. However, the district analysis shows Spencer has a chance to catch Robinson on election day.
The negative mailers sent out by pro-Spencer PAC to bash Robinson appear to have had a reverse impact on the race with Robinson picking up votes since our Oct. 8 poll.
| Overall | Nov . 3 | Oct. 8 | Sept. 10 |
| Grover Robinson | 47.3% | 44.8% | 46.5% |
| Brian Spencer | 37.4% | 37.5% | 35.9% |
| Gap | 9.9% | 7.3% | 10.6% |
| Don’t know candidates | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% |
| Undecided | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| Total uncertain | 15.3% | 17.6% | 17.6% |
When we looked at the voters by district, Robinson has picked up votes on the west side of Pensacola, even though Spencer still leads in Districts 6 and 7. However, those two districts have the largest percentages of uncertain voters, 24.1 percent and 27.2 percent respectively.
Robinson increased his lead in Districts 2, 3 and 5.
Spencer has narrowed Robinson’s lead in District 1 – which as moved from 17.9 percent on Sept. 10 to 13.9 percent on Oct. 8 to only 3.4 percent last week.
District 4 has flipped back to Spencer (46.8-43.5), probably due to the endorsement from Mayor Ashton Hayward.
Districts |
Robinson |
Spencer |
Uncertain |
Gap |
District 1 |
||||
| Nov. 3 | 45.8% | 42.4% | 11.9% | 3.4% |
| Oct. 8 | 46.8% | 32.9% | 20.3% | 13.9% |
| Sept. 10 | 53.6% | 35.7% | 10.7% | 17.9% |
District 2 |
||||
| Nov. 3 | 56.9% | 29.3% | 13.8% | 27.6% |
| Oct. 8 | 48.9% | 26.7% | 24.4% | 22.2% |
| Sept. 10 | 44.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 16.0% |
District 3 |
||||
| Nov. 3 | 60.5% | 31.4% | 8.2% | 29.1% |
| Oct. 8 | 55.6% | 31.1% | 13.3% | 24.5% |
| Sept. 10 | 47.8% | 31.9% | 20.2% | 15.9% |
District 4 |
||||
| Nov. 3 | 43.5% | 47.1% | 9.4% | -3.6% |
| Oct. 8 | 46.8% | 41.8% | 11.4% | 5.0% |
| Sept. 10 | 43.5% | 50.6% | 5.9% | -7.1% |
District 5 |
||||
| Nov. 3 | 55.3% | 26.3% | 18.4% | 29.0% |
| Oct. 8 | 44.8% | 37.9% | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| Sept. 10 | 37.9% | 32.8% | 29.3% | 5.1% |
District 6 |
||||
| Nov. 3 | 36.7% | 39.2% | 24.1% | -2.5% |
| Oct. 8 | 38.2% | 41.6% | 20.2% | -3.4% |
| Sept. 10 | 55.3% | 34.0% | 10.6% | 21.3% |
District 7 |
||||
| Nov. 3 | 32.7% | 40.4% | 27.2% | -7.7% |
| Oct. 8 | 28.3% | 50.9% | 20.8% | -22.6% |
| Sept. 10 | 38.0% | 32.0% | 30.0% | 6.0% |
METHODOLOGY:
 The persons sampled were likely city of Pensacola voters with a voting score of 100% for the general election cycles. The voters were called using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system during the hours of 12-8 p.m. Nov. 2-3. The Margin of Error for this study is +/- 3.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.