According to an Inweekly/Political Matrix poll of 443 likely Escambia County Commission District 2 voters, Democrat Scott Trotter is picking up steam in his race to unseat Commissioner Doug Underhill. Political newcomer Trotter garnered 42.7 percent to incumbent Underhill’s 32.1 percent, with 25.3 percent uncertain for whom they will vote.
| Doug Underhill | 32.1% |
| Scott Trotter | 42.7% |
| Don’t know candidates | 15.6% |
| Undecided | 9.7% |
In 2014, Underhill beat his Democratic opponent Deb Moore, 65-35 percent.
In late July 2018, Inweekly polling had McMillan leading in the District 2 GOP primary by 12.2 points. However, Underhill was able to swing the voters back in his favor in the subsequent weeks. The commissioner narrowly made it out of the August 2018 GOP primary, beating challenger Alan McMillan by 210 votes.
Now, it appears Underhill has done little to pull McMillan’s supporters into his camp. Trotter has picked up a large percentage of support from registered Republicans. He leads by double digits with Democrats and NPA voters.
| GOP | Dem | NPA | |
| Doug Underhill | 37.3% | 20.6% | 31.7% |
| Scott Trotter | 37.7% | 53.2% | 43.9% |
| Don’t know candidates | 14.5% | 19.0% | 12.2% |
| Undecided | 10.5% | 7.1% | 12.2% |
With this district being one of the most unique and difficult districts to predict and poll, it will be very interesting to see who manages to get out the vote on Nov. 6. Underhill has shown in the past that he has an effective Election Day ground game. Will Trotter?
Also, we want to see if the GOP voters are pulled toward voting straight ticket next Tuesday after President Trump visits the area this Saturday.
METHODOLOGY:
The persons sampled were likely Escambia County District 2 voters comprised by a voting score of 90 percent or higher for the general election cycles. The voters were called using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system during the hours of 12 p.m. to 8 p.m. Oct. 27-29. The Margin of Error for this study is +/- 3.5 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.