Ashton Hayward has indeed won, 10,645-9,837, a hard-fought mayoral race over veteran incumbent Mike Wiggins. Both sides worked hard to get their messages out. Each side took stands on the issues. Both candidates knocked on doors and met the voters.
Wiggins and Hayward should be commended for their efforts. The voters made an informed decision in this election because of those efforts.
I eagerly await the precinct numbers today to analyze how and where Hayward won this race. I had predicted after the primary that Pensacola would have 55-percent voter turnout based on the 2006 city elections. I also wrote that the winner would need at least 10,000 votes to win.
The voter turnout in the city was 55.4 percent and Hayward got 10,645 votes.
I told my staff and friends last week that based on what I was seeing and hearing on the streets and in the neighborhoods that I thought Hayward would win by 6 percentage points. They all thought I was crazy.
Hayward won by 3.94 percentage points. I missed it by 2.
After the August primary in which Wiggins placed first by 543 votes, winning 19 of 31 precincts, I wrote that we needed to watch in September and October for the answers to these questions:
1. Who Diane Mack supports?
2. How much each candidate raises for the first report?
3. Who the Mays and their friends support?
4. Who has the best ground game on election day?
Question 1: Mack and Church Lady Bare supported Wiggins. They appeared at forums with him. They wrote on blogs and other websites attacking Hayward. In the end, those endorsements had little value. I thought Mack might have some influence, based on her 2008 election victory. I was wrong.
Question 2: Wiggins outraised Hayward in the first reporting period after the primary, $20,470 to $9,550. However Hayward beat him in the final two periods, $30,439-$14,420.
Question 3: Lumon, LuTimothy and the entire May family supported Hayward. I believe the precinct numbers will show that they and their friends significantly cut into Wiggins’ base in the African-American community which was to be delivered to Wiggins by Ron Townsend, John Jerralds, Marie Young, Georgia Blackmon and Gerald McKenzie.
Question 4: Hayward by far had the best ground game on Election Day. There weren’t throngs of Wiggins supporters at the polling places like he had in the August primary. We’ve confirmed that some of those with Wiggins signs were paid to be there. All this begs the question: Did the Wiggins camp have some polling data that showed he was going to lose? It was weird to see so little enthusiasm for Wiggins.