Morning Consult’s state-level data for key presidential, Senate and gubernatorial contests
NEW YORK — September 9, 2024 — Ahead of Tuesday’s presidential debate, Morning Consult released new state-level polling among 17,620 likely voters across 14 states.
Key Findings:
- Battleground states: Harris leads Trump within the margin of sampling error in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Trump leads Harris inside the margin of sampling error in Arizona and Florida, while the two candidates are tied in Georgia and North Carolina.
- Arizona: Harris: 47%, Trump: 49%
- Colorado: Harris 55%, Trump, 40%
- Florida: Harris 47%, Trump, 49%
- Georgia: Harris: 48%, Trump, 48%
- Maryland: Harris 62%, Trump, 34%
- Michigan: Harris 49%, Trump, 46%
- Minnesota: Harris 51%, Trump, 44%
- Nevada: Harris 48%, Trump, 48%
- North Carolina: Harris 48%, Trump, 48%
- Ohio: Harris 44%, Trump, 52%
- Pennsylvania: Harris 49%, Trump, 46%
- Texas: Harris 43%, Trump, 52%
- Virginia: Harris 52%, Trump, 42%
- Wisconsin: Harris 49%, Trump, 46%
- Independent voters: Harris holds at least a small lead among independent voters in most states we’re tracking. However, that is not the case in Ohio and Arizona, where Trump has backing from roughly half of the likely independent voters there.
- State-level races: Senate incumbents on both sides of the aisle in the races we’re tracking look to be in good shape, while Democrats appear to have an edge in open-seat races.
- Senate Races:
- Arizona: Gallego: 49%, Lake: 41%
- Florida: Mucarsel-Powell: 42%, Scott: 47%
- Maryland: Alsobrooks: 48%, Hogan: 43%
- Michigan: Slotkin: 49%, Rogers: 40%
- Nevada: Rosen: 50%, Brown: 40%
- Ohio: Brown: 46%, Moreno: 43%
- Pennsylvania: Casey: 49%, McCormick: 40%
- Texas: Allred: 42%, Cruz: 47%
- Wisconsin: Baldwin: 49%, Hovde: 42%
- Senate Races:
Morning Consult’s new state-level polling tracker will be updated on a regular cadence in the lead up to Election Day. This data draws on Morning Consult’s always-on daily data collection technology that surveys more than 5,000 adults across the U.S. every day and is the same survey instrument used to track governor, senator and presidential approval ratings.
If you would like a free, complimentary media account to Morning Consult Pro to access our data and analysis, contact us at press@morningconsult.com.
Methodology: These surveys were conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 8, 2024, among likely voters in each state, with margins of error ranging from +/-4 percentage points in Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin and Maryland to +/-2 percentage points in Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania. Responses from likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia have margins of error of +/-3 percentage points. Results do not include responses among voters who were initially undecided and were asked to pick which candidate they are leaning toward. Our likely voter criteria includes any registered voters who say they are highly likely to vote in the November 2024 general election. The scale of our likely voter filter question ranges from 1-10, where “1” means an individual will definitely not vote in the November 2024 presidential election and “10” means an individual will definitely vote in November. Respondents who answer that they are an “8” or higher are deemed likely voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
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