Public school enrollment expected to take more hits

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State economists forecast a downward trend for Florida’s traditional public school enrollment over the next five years, while participation in school choice programs is expected to surge significantly.

According to the latest Education Estimating Conference report, traditional public school enrollment is projected to decrease from approximately 2.81 million full-time equivalent students in the current academic year to 2.74 million by fiscal year 2029-2030. Read prek-12_conferencereport.

Conversely, enrollment in Florida’s expanded voucher programs—including support for home-schooled students—is anticipated to grow from nearly 457,000 students this year to almost 697,000 by 2029-2030.

This shift reflects Florida’s recent policy initiatives that have dramatically expanded school choice options, creating what many describe as a “universal” school choice environment in the state.

We reported earlier this year that during the 2023-24 school year, Escambia ranked third in the state in the percentage of students who attend a private school, at 21.2%. According to the Florida Department of Education, only Martin (44.4%) and Jefferson (38.6%) topped Escambia.

The problem has been the exodus of middle school students out of the system. The school district has already added sixth grade to two of its elementary schools, Cordova Park and West Pensacola, and has decided to implement a middle school scholars program at Pensacola High School beginning in 2026-27. Administrators are exploring alternatives, including grade level expansion at other elementary schools and collaborations between elementary and middle schools near each other, such as Hellen Caro Elementary and neighboring Bailey Middle.

Another possibility under consideration is a partnership between N.B. Cook and O.J. Semmes elementary schools. The idea is to expand Cook’s popular curriculum model, with primary grades K-2 or K-3 housed at Semmes and intermediate grades at Cook.

We should learn more about this from the Escambia County School District as the system prepares its budget for the next fiscal year.

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Public school enrollment expected to take more hits

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