Politics
Push Polls and Playbooks: How Team Hofberger Is Trying to Sink Joe Vinson
A biased “survey” in District 4 follows a familiar pattern, and it’s a world apart from the clean poll Jon Fay’s campaign just ran in House District 2.
Team Ashlee Hofberger conducted a push poll in District 4, where the two-term District 4 county commissioner is running for re-election in November. Her opponent is No Party Affiliation (NPA) candidate Joe Vinson.
What’s a push poll? A push poll is a manipulative political campaign technique disguised as a legitimate opinion survey. It uses biased or false information framed as questions to sway voters against an opponent, rather than to measure genuine public opinion.
The Hofberger push poll asked voters:
- Ashlee Hofberger is endorsed by law enforcement and first responders. How positive is your opinion of her leadership on public safety?
- How important is it to you that Escambia County’s budget achieve the rollback rate to deliver real property tax relief for families and homeowners?
- Would you be concerned about supporting a candidate running as No Party Affiliation if he held democratic socialist views?
- If the election were today, would you vote for conservative Republican Ashlee Hofberger or left-leaning NPA candidate Joe Vinson?
- Do you believe your tax dollars should go to charities?
The Pattern
The push poll landed one week after a “news” website published the article “Is Independent Escambia County Candidate Joe Vinson Really a Democratic Socialist?”
It’s not the campaign’s first swing at an opponent. Text messages show that during the debate over who would become the county’s next library director, Hofberger and her former aide, Melanie Luna, participated in a smear campaign to damage the reputation of the candidate unanimously recommended for the job — who happens to be Vinson’s wife. Luna resigned in late May, and Hofberger’s pick for the position, Christal Bell-Rivera, resigned this month.
In the 2024 GOP primary, a PAC tied to Hofberger sent out a mailer that darkened the face of her opponent, Walker Wilson, and slammed him for being a friend of Commissioner Lumon May and accused Wilson, a lifelong Republican, of being part of “the Democratic machine.”
Another Poll
While Team Hofberger was trashing Vinson, the campaign for Florida House District 2 Republican contender Jon Fay also ran a poll. His questions:
- How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 General Election?
- If the election for Florida State House District 2 were held today, who would you vote for?
- Have you heard of the following candidates?
- How certain are you of your choice?
- If undecided: Even though you are undecided, which candidate do you currently lean toward?
- What is your overall opinion of Jon Fay?
- What is your overall opinion of Johnny Austin Thompson?
- Which ONE issue should be the highest priority for the next State Representative from District 2?
- Regardless of your own choice, thinking about the voters who live in your neighborhood, which candidate do you expect most of them to vote for in the upcoming election?
- Overall, do you think Florida is: Right Track, Wrong Track, Not Sure?
- Compared with one year ago, would you say your household’s financial situation is…?
- Regardless of how you are officially registered to vote, how do you personally identify politically?
- Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
- What is your age?
- How do you describe your gender?
A decent poll that doesn’t trash Fay’s opponent, Johnny Austin Thompson, and instead provides useful information for Fay’s campaign.
Both Ashlee Hofberger and Jon Fay are heavily favored to win. However, the paths they’re taking to get there are very different.