Elections
The former Escambia County elections chief says late-arriving ballots cut the lead from 11 votes to three overnight, and a few more categories of ballots remain to be counted.
The District 4 Escambia County Commission race was down to three votes Wednesday morning, and former Supervisor of Elections David Stafford says it could still move.
- Stafford, now Pensacola’s city administrator, served as Escambia County’s elections chief from 2004 to 2025. He told reporters at the city’s weekly press conference that when he went to bed Tuesday night, the margin was 11 votes, with Commissioner Ashlee Hofberger ahead of challenger Joe Vinson. By the time he woke up, it was three.
Why the Number Moved
Stafford said the overnight swing came from late-arriving ballots, not ballots that came in after the polls closed. Vote-by-mail ballots can still arrive before 7 p.m. on Election Day, and each one has to be logged and processed. He noted the last update on the elections website was posted after midnight.
“They’ve figured out how to do it accurately and quickly, which I think is the secret sauce to be able to have confidence.”
What’s still out there. Stafford deferred to his successor, Supervisor of Elections Robert Bender, on the exact numbers. He listed several categories of ballots that could still be added:
- Provisional ballots. Stafford did not know how many there are, but said some are likely in District 4.
- Cure ballots. Vote-by-mail voters whose signatures didn’t match were sent a cure notice. The deadline to fix the ballot is close of business Thursday, Nov. 5.
- 10-day ballots. Military and overseas voters have up to 10 days after the election, as long as the ballot is postmarked or dated by Election Day. Stafford said it is usually a very small number.
How Florida’s recount triggers work
- A margin of one-half percent or less triggers a machine recount. Paper ballots are run back through the tabulators.
- If the margin is still one-quarter percent or less after that, a manual recount follows.
- In a manual recount, the canvassing board reviews ballots the scanner flagged, such as overvotes (marks in both choices) and undervotes (an oval circled but not filled in).
“Manual” is a misnomer. Stafford said the manual recount does not mean hand-counting every ballot. Only the ballots the machines set aside as questionable go in front of the canvassing board. That review, plus the provisional and vote-by-mail ballots still outstanding, is why a three-vote margin can shift.
A Familiar Spot
Stafford said he stopped by the elections office on his way home to commiserate with Bender and the canvassing board member serving this week. His own “baptism by fire,” he said, was the 2006 primary between Gene Valentino and Edwin Roberts, which he recalled starting at five votes and ending at three.
- Mail ballot turnout dropped. I asked Stafford why the share of early and vote-by-mail ballots didn’t hold as it has in past elections. He pointed to a change in state law. Vote-by-mail requests used to be good for two election cycles. The Legislature changed that so a request is good for only one cycle, and existing requests were wiped on **January 1, 2025**. Voters who requested a mail ballot for the 2024 presidential election had to start over.
“I’ve got extreme confidence not only in the system, but in the people and personnel that we have here locally to make sure it’s fully transparent.”
Bottom line. Stafford said the elections are fully audited, and the recount process is robust. He expects voters to see results that reflect their will. Between the recount, the provisional ballots, the cure deadline and the overseas ballots, the District 4 margin could still change.