As of 4 a.m. this morning, the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 96.2 West and moving toward the north-northwest at 5 mph.
A slow north-northwest motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed.
On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.
Francine already looks like a healthy storm with quite a bit of ventilation and very deep convection and will tap into the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly strengthen, especially during the day on Tuesday. It could become a Cat 2.
Full Advisory:
…FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 415 MI…665 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 96.2 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
north-northwest motion is expected through this morning,
followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just
offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast
of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch
area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in
eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX…1-3 ft
Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
