Once again, Escambia County Public Safety Director Eric Gilmore will give us an update at 7 a.m. on “Real News with Rick Outzen.”
County meteorologist Scottlin Williams subbed for Eric. She says it’s still too early to model the tropical wave – “Be Prepared, Not Scared.”
Tropical Weather 7-Day Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next
several days while it moves generally northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
ACCUWEATHER
AccuWeather meteorologists say the area from the western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico will remain a potential tropical development zone into the first half of October. Over the next week, one to two tropical storms could be born in this zone and possibly steered across part of the southeastern United States that was hit hard by Hurricane Helene.
Downpours will flourish in the vicinity around the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico this week. Later on, the downpours can be strewn anywhere from Louisiana to Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas in the U.S.
Should steering breezes remain weak, then a track toward Louisiana could occur. Should strong steering breezes from the southwest occur, then a track toward Florida and perhaps the coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas would be more likely.
There will be significant differences between this new tropical threat and what was Helene.
“Helene was a large tropical disturbance that moved into a highly conducive environment for rapid strengthening. In addition to the very warm water, there was very little wind shear in front of Helene,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
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