Conventional political wisdom says that an incumbent must have 45 percent of the primary vote to win a run-off. If this holds true, then Mike Wiggins is in trouble.
However, there are a few mitigating factors:
1. The run-off is more than 60 days away–plenty of time for Wiggins to shore up support.
2. Ashton Hayward is seen by some as a younger version of Wiggins. Can Hayward get the Mack vote that wanted change in government? The Bare ‘voters” will hinge on whatever the latest conspiracies surface in September and October. By November, they could be involved in another petition drive.
3. Wiggins can use the council meetings to build up more support.
However, I believe this is Hayward’s election to lose. If he raises $20K-$30K over the next couple weeks, he could knock the breath out of the Wiggins campaign. The first campaign report after the primary will tell who the money guys want to win.
The wildcard for Wiggins is his ground game on the election day. He had people waving at every precinct. Hayward didn’t. Team Hayward will have to get their election day act together. People must be at every voting place.
Another issue for Hayward is the African-American community, which voted lightly—but those who voted went for Wiggins. The mayor has the support of Commissioner Marie Young and Council members Ronald Townsend, John Jerralds and Jewel Cannada-Wynn.
Mayor Wiggins finished in first by 543 votes, winning 19 of 31 precincts. His best precincts were:
98: Macedonia: margin over Hayward: 178
14: Fricker: margin over Hayward: 76
90: St. John Divine: margin over Hayward: 64
58: Our Savior: margin over Hayward: 50
41: Bayview: margin over Hayward: 47
56: Esc Co Env. Health: margin over Hayward: 35
With the exception of Our Savior (Pct 58), these voting places have high African-American percentages: Pct. 98: 68% Pct. 90: 91% Pct. 14: 70% Pct. 56: 47%
Hayward will have to do much better in that African-American community to win.
Diane Mack did do well in those precincts. Her endorsement could impact the vote there. She is being heavily courted by Wiggins and Hayward.
Another factor will be who Lumon May, his brother LuTimothy and their group decide to support. The Young-Townsend-Jerralds group showed how many votes that they could deliver for Wiggins.
The May camp could out produce that block, if they choose to get involved in the race.
So watch for these things:
Who Diane Mack supports?
How much each candidate raises for the first report?
Who the Mays and their friends support?
Who has the best ground game on election day?