Yesterday, I discussed today’s election with friends—Republicans and Democrats—about the national, Florida and Escambia County races. Democrats hope for a Blue Tsunami or an Orange Crush, while Republicans expect a GOP undertow that won’t be as damaging as the voter polls predict.
Recount
Both Byron Donalds and David Jolly are prepared for the race to so tight that a recount will be necessary.
In Florida, a margin of 0.5% or less of the total votes cast triggers a mandatory recount. It operates in two stages:
- Machine recount: A machine recount must be ordered if the first set of unofficial returns shows that a candidate was defeated by 0.5% or less of the total votes cast for the office,
- Manual recount: If the second set of unofficial returns, which includes the machine recount, shows a margin of 0.25% or less, a manual recount must be ordered. This hand recount covers only the overvotes and undervotes set aside during the machine recount, not every ballot.
In 2018, Florida had recounts for three statewide races:
U.S. Senate
Rick Scott (R) 4,098,505 (50.05%)
Bill Nelson (D) 4,089,472 (49.93%)
Both in raw vote margin and in percentage difference, this was the closest Senate election in the 2018 cycle. Scott flipped 16 counties that Nelson had won in 2012.
Governor
Ron DeSantis (R) 4,076,186 (49.59%)
Andrew Gillum (D) 4,043,723 (49.19%)
The close margin mandated a machine recount. After the recount, DeSantis was certified as the winner. Gillum conceded on Nov. 17.
Commissioner of Agriculture
Matt Caldwell (R) 4,026,201 (49.96%)
Nikki Fried (D) 4,032,954 (50.04%)
Local Races
We’re watching two races closely.
Escambia County Commission, District 4
Ashlee Hofberger (R)
Joe Vinson (NPA)
Two weeks ago, Commissioner Ashlee Hofberger’s supporters were bragging that she had a 10-point lead over challenger Joe Vinson. Yesterday, I was told they’re worried because it has shrunk to four points since her religion-scapegoating mailer.
- Hofberger’s “mean girl” persona seems out of step with District 4, but she is a Republican incumbent, and an NPA candidate has never won a commission race.
The result of this race will determine if County Administrator Wes Moreno keeps his job through his August 2027 retirement date.
Pensacola City Council, District 2
Charles Bare
Sherri Myers
City council races rarely attract much interest, but Mayor D.C. Reeves and his PAC have come out for Myers, who was a thorn in the side of Reeves’ two predecessors, Ashton Hayward and Grover Robinson.
- Bare is Reeves’ thorn. Does the mayor have the juice to have Bare removed?
Live Election Night Coverage
We will host election coverage tonight on YouTube starting 7 p.m. We will have the early local results by 7:05 p.m.
