FLORIDA: Obama 42 – Romney 45
OHIO: Obama 45 – Romney 42
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 44 – Romney 43
One year before the presidential election, President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the three states that for the past half-century have predicted the presidential winner, according to the first Quinnipiac University “Swing State Poll” of the 2012 cycle released today. The president leads the other top GOP contenders, although half the voters in each state say he does not deserve a second term. Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without carrying at least two of these three states.
Herman Cain and Romney lead the Republican primary pack in all three states, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
But when all voters – not just Republicans – are asked about Romney and Cain, voters are more comfortable with the idea of Romney as president. Romney is considered more honest and trustworthy and makes a more favorable impression, while Cain is viewed more unfavorably.
“Although President Barack Obama is running behind his 2008 showings in the three key swing states against Gov. Mitt Romney, he actually does better against the other GOP aspirants – including Herman Cain – than he did against Sen. John McCain,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “That may not be surprising given the president’s substantial name recognition edge on any of his challengers.”
“His wide lead over most of the field and his neck-and-neck race with Romney show that the dissatisfaction with the president as evidenced by his mid-40s percent job approval and weak ‘deserves a second term’ ratings hasn’t translated into affection for his GOP challengers,” Brown added.
“Questions about Herman Cain’s behavior as head of the National Restaurant Association haven’t derailed his candidacy so far, and he remains strong among Republicans. While the immediate effect hasn’t been catastrophic, it’s unclear whether the story will have legs that will make a larger dent in the ‘Cain Train’ as we get closer to the actual primaries. Nevertheless, there is a negative effect from the controversy on his standing among non-Republicans that gives him overall negative ratings on voter comfort level with him as president and whether he is honest and trustworthy. The gender gap is large as women in each state are more negative on Cain.”
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