Election 2026
NPA candidate Joe Vinson now leads Commissioner Ashlee Hofberger by 19 votes in the Escambia County Commission District 4 race. I reported this morning that the Supervisor of Elections website shows:
- Ashlee Hofberger (Rep) 13,068
- Joe Vinson (NPA) 13,087
What happens next
- A machine recount starts Saturday, Nov. 7.
- If the margin is still within a quarter of a percent, a manual recount follows.
- Supervisor of Elections Robert Bender says the winner may not be known until after Nov. 13, because overseas military ballots are still coming in.
State Rep. Alex Andrade saw it coming. On Rick’s Blog Live, taped before the latest count, he said the outstanding ballots were mostly vote by mail, which pointed toward Vinson.
The Mail Ballots Told the Story
Republicans vote on Election Day. Andrade, who spent election night at the Supervisor of Elections office preparing for a possible recount, said about half of all statewide votes cast on Election Day were Republican, even though Republicans made up only about 40% of overall turnout. Democrats, meanwhile, won the vote-by-mail tally and sharply improved their early voting totals compared to 2018 and 2022.
The late swing was small but decisive. Andrade said Hofberger’s lead was 11 votes before roughly 400 countywide mail ballots were counted late Tuesday night. He estimated about 20 percent of those belonged to District 4, fewer than 100 votes. Vinson netted eight of them, cutting the lead to three.
- It was not the mail ballots that put Hofberger in the lead. Election Day votes did.
- If another 100 mail ballots were cured, Andrade figured Vinson could take 60 and Hofberger 40.
- No NPA candidate has ever come close to an incumbent Republican or Democrat on the Escambia County Commission.
Why District 4 Is Different
An independent streak. Andrade said District 4 holds the largest concentration of reliable Republican voters with a negative view of President Trump, and that those voters show the most independent thought. That makes Republican turnout and defections hard to gauge.
- Pensacola Beach is her sweet spot. The precinct map showed Vinson winning 10 of the district’s 19 precincts to Hofberger’s nine. Hofberger’s margin on Pensacola Beach was more than 500 votes. Take the beach out, I noted, and she struggled to win votes across the core of the district.
The endorsements did not settle it. Hofberger was backed by Clerk Pam Childers, Sheriff Chip Simmons and Mayor D.C. Reeves. Andrade endorsed Vinson.
“I don’t look at local races as partisan. I just think Joe would be the better person in that seat.”
Statewide: Byron Donalds Wins a Close One
David Jolly led early. Andrade said Jolly held roughly a point and a half when early and mail votes posted, but Byron Donalds gained about two-tenths of a point with every Election Day update. Donalds’s lead did not crystallize until after 8 p.m. Eastern, and his campaign had been preparing for a recount.
It is good to be Ashley Moody. Moody was the top statewide vote-getter in 2018, 2022 and again in 2026. What struck Andrade was how little daylight separated the top and bottom of the Republican statewide ticket.
- 2018: about 206,000 votes between Moody and Matt Caldwell
- 2022: about 175,000 between Marco Rubio and Moody
- 2026: about 75,000 between Moody and the lowest Republican
“The moral of the story is it’s very good to be Ashley Moody.”
Amendment 3 and a Message About Money
The homestead exemption passed easily, with about 62%, despite opposition from sheriffs, county commissioners and cities. Andrade said renters and commercial property owners should expect higher property taxes, because local governments will likely raise millage rates to recoup the lost homestead revenue. The other two amendments on the ballot failed.
Kitchen-table politics. Andrade said the narrowing gap between Republican candidates shows voters were not choosing among individuals.
“Folks really are hurting financially right now. The cost of gas is obviously affecting people.”
He said the vote had more to do with national conditions than anything happening in Florida.
