In 2006 General Election, Republican Holly Benson beat Democrat Liz Campbell – 23,655 to 14,224. In the 2007 Special Election, Clay Ford beat Campbell – 7,328 to 5,863.
Democrats and Other have already cast in Escambia alone 14,621 votes – more than all the votes cast in the 2007 Special Election.
The total District 3 Escambia votes cast this election, as of 7:45 yesterday, are 24,246 – 64% of all the votes cast in 2006 for this house seat.
Not all the 2008 Dem & Other votes will go to Ford’s opponent, Lumon May, but May is picking up support among younger GOP voters.
How many votes will Ford get from Gulf Breeze? He got 1,027 in 2007. Benson got 1,961 in 2006 and 2,092 in 2004. Best guess is Ford will get 2,000 votes in Gulf Breeze.
The role of Gulf Breeze in Ford’s 2007 victory was exaggerated because Pensacola didn’t vote.
This race will be won or lost in East Pensacola.