Hurricane Preparedness:
Escambia County meteorologist Scottlin Wilson says a hurricane watch and storm surge watch are up, and the next two days are the final window to get ready.
Tropical Storm Isaias is gaining strength in the Gulf, and Escambia County is under a hurricane watch and a storm surge watch. Forecasters expect 5 to 7 feet of surge here.
Scottlin Wilson, Escambia County’s meteorologist, joined me on We Don’t Color on the Dog as hurricane hunters were flying into the system. Here is what she said residents need to know.
Where the Storm Stands
- Current strength: 45 mph winds and a central pressure of 1,000 millibars
- Expected to become a hurricane by Thursday
- Peak forecast: 110 mph, one mile per hour short of Category 3 major hurricane status
- Track trend: Each of the last few forecast updates has nudged the storm farther east
“That one mile an hour difference either way is not going to make a huge difference, especially when it comes to impact.”
Why the number matters less than you think. Wilson wants residents to stop fixating on the category. A 110 mph hurricane and a 111 mph hurricane will both bring serious wind, water and power outages. Plan for significant impacts either way.
Don’t Stare at the Cone
The cone is not the impact zone. Wilson warned that too many people see they are outside the center line and relax. The storm is expected to grow as it nears the northern Gulf Coast, so heavy rain, strong winds, power outages and tornadoes can reach well beyond the cone.
The ground is already soaked. Last weekend’s rain left saturated soil, which makes flooding and downed trees more likely.
“West is best and east is beast.”
Why the east side is the dirty side. If wind shear weakens or disrupts the storm, Wilson said many of the impacts would shift to the east. That is the wet and dirty side of a tropical system, and it is where tornadoes can spin up in the rain bands.
What Will Decide How Strong It Gets
Fuel versus shear. Even in an El Niño year, the Gulf is extremely warm, and that warm water is feeding Isaias. El Niño brings wind shear and drier air, but those are closer to the coast. For now, the storm sits in a favorable environment. The trouble for the storm starts when it turns north and meets those hostile conditions.
The turn is the big question. Data from the hurricane hunters shows the storm’s internal structure and when it actually turns. A later turn, an earlier turn, a slower storm or a faster one all change the track. Wilson also cautioned against comparing Isaias to Sally or Michael. Every storm is different in size, speed and setup.
When to Expect Updates
The National Hurricane Center issues full advisories at 4 a.m., 10 a.m., 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. Intermediate advisories can come in between, but they do not always include a new track. Wilson said the next major update to watch was the 4 p.m. advisory.
