Race for Governor
Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly are effectively tied in the race for Florida Governor, according to a new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics. Donalds has 44% support to Jolly’s 43%—less than a tenth of a point apart before rounding. Another 4% picked someone else, and 9% remain undecided with less than seven weeks until Election Day.
- The poll surveyed 913 likely voters Sept. 15-17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points. St. Pete Polls weighted the sample to match Florida’s active voter rolls—42% Republican, 31% Democratic, 27% no-party or minor party—even though Republicans made up 45% of raw respondents.
Troublesome Number for GOP: Among voters outside the two major parties, Jolly leads 48% to 36%, with 13% undecided.
Crossover Votes and the Base
Jolly, the former Republican Congressman from Pinellas County, is pulling more crossover support than Donalds. He takes 13% of GOP voters, while Donalds—the Naples Congressman endorsed by President Trump—gets just 8% of Democrats. Donalds holds 74% of Republicans; Jolly holds 81% of Democrats.
Independents favor the Democrat by 12 points in a sample weighted 42% Republican.
Donalds won the GOP Primary in August with roughly 48% of the vote after fending off attacks from Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback. Jolly took 61% on the Democratic side.
Age, Race and Gender
By age: Voters under 30 back Jolly 65% to 17%, and he leads 53% to 33% among those 30 to 49. Donalds leads 44% to 40% with voters 50 to 69 and 63% to 30% with those 70 and older—a group where only 4% are undecided.
By race: Donalds, who would be Florida’s first Black Governor, draws just 16% of Black voters to Jolly’s 68%, with 12% undecided. A University of North Florida poll in July had him at 6% with that group. White voters favor Donalds 50% to 37%. Hispanic voters favor Jolly 48% to 39%.
By gender: Men lean Jolly 45% to 43%, and women lean Donalds 44% to 42%—a reversal of the usual gender gap. Both splits sit within the margin of error for subsamples that size.
Media Markets
- Tampa (largest market, Jolly’s home base): Donalds leads 47% to 42%
- Fort Myers (Donalds’ home base): Donalds leads 51% to 34%
- West Palm Beach: Donalds leads 48% to 39%
- Miami: Jolly leads 49% to 41%
- Jacksonville: Jolly leads 47% to 35%
- Orlando: Jolly leads 44% to 41%
Smaller markets had too few respondents to draw conclusions.
Read Florida Politics’ complete analysis.
Methodology
St. Pete Polls surveyed likely voters Sept. 15-17 for Florida Politics using automated phone calls (57%) and peer-to-peer text messages (43%), drawing respondents at random from the state’s voter file as of Aug. 11. Results were weighted by party, race, age, gender and media market. Voters who said they don’t plan to vote in the General Election were excluded; of those remaining, 95% said they plan to vote for Governor. Margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 points at 95% confidence.
