I have admitted that I’m a numbers nerd. Â Commissioner Doug Underhill’s mass email berating himself (after all, he is the government), media and medical professional got me curious to find Escambia County’s daily percentage of positive cases.
My analysis found several errors in the medical spreadsheet provided by the Escambia County Emergency Operations Center – errors that definitely undermine the commissioner’s hypothesis. Â The errors occurred over a three-day period – April 15-17. Â On April 15, the positive results total dropped but went back up on April 16. Â On April 16, the total negative results jumped nearly 1500, only to drop on April 17.
Despite these errors by the EOC, the percentage of positive test results has climbed steadily. Â On April 7, the percentage of positive results was 5.74%. Then for two days, the EOC didn’t release the spreadsheet. Â On April 10, the positive percentage jumped to 6.04% and has steadily risen – except for 4/15-17 – to 7.15% by April 19.
I also tracked the new positive results received each day.  The percentage for new positive results for April 19  was 9.26%.  The EOC reported no results were received yesterday. FDOH reports of the 10,729 tests performed on April 20, there were 1,054 positive results, or 9.8 percent.  We are very close to matching the state’s percentage.
Of course, this analysis is only as good as the data supplied by the county.
| Total Results | Positives | Negatives | YTD + |  New Results | New + | Daily % | |
| 5-Apr | 2631 | 136 | 2495 | 5.17% | |||
| 6-Apr | 3025 | 165 | 2860 | 5.77% | 394 | Â Â Â Â Â 29 | 7.36% |
| 7-Apr | 3038 | 165 | 2873 | 5.74% | 13 | Â Â Â Â Â Â – | 0.00% |
| 8-Apr | |||||||
| 9-Apr | |||||||
| 10-Apr | 3619 | 206 | 3413 | 6.04% | 581 | Â Â Â Â Â 41 | 7.06% |
| 11-Apr | 3634 | 221 | 3413 | 6.48% | 15 | Â Â Â Â Â 15 | 100.00% |
| 12-Apr | 3789 | 235 | 3554 | 6.61% | 155 | Â Â Â Â Â 14 | 9.03% |
| 13-Apr | 3898 | 246 | 3652 | 6.74% | 109 | Â Â Â Â Â 11 | 10.09% |
| 14-Apr | 3975 | 254 | 3721 | 6.83% | 77 | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8 | 10.39% |
| 15-Apr | 4327 | 246 | 4081 | 6.03% | 352 | Â Â Â Â Â (8) | -2.27% |
| 16-Apr | 5790 | 282 | 5508 | 5.12% | 1463 | Â Â Â Â Â 36 | 2.46% |
| 17-Apr | 4496 | 303 | 4193 | 7.23% | -1294 | Â Â Â Â Â 21 | -1.62% |
| 18-Apr | 4650 | 309 | 4341 | 7.12% | 154 | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6 | 3.90% |
| 19-Apr | 4704 | 314 | 4,390 | 7.15% | 54 | Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5 | 9.26% |
source: Test Result Spreadsheets supplied by EOC, available on myescambia.com
Total Results = Positives+Negatives
Positive %= Positives/Total Results
New Results=Today’s Total Results-Yesterday’s Results
New Positives=Today’s Positives-Yesterday’s Positives
Daily %= New Positive/New Results
Agreed, that’s our most vulnerable population and they are all clustered together. Its apparent that even though we have been social distancing for almost six weeks, it still found it’s way to the nursing homes. It was inevitable. That is the population that we need to focus resources on and protect. The rest of the county needs to get back to work.
FDOH says cumulative is 10%. One of the reasons I want a county press briefing is to get an explanation of the local data. I do believe focusing on nursing homes will drive the percentage up.
If I am reading this post correctly, the 9.8% positive is for one day, not cumulative, which is what the state number is on the daily post.
Also, I wonder how the sampling population has changed over the last several weeks, as that coukd have a significant impact on the positive results. In other words, have they refined the screening process so that they are now testing those more likely to have been exposed to the virus.