I have admitted that I’m a numbers nerd. Commissioner Doug Underhill’s mass email berating himself (after all, he is the government), media and medical professional got me curious to find Escambia County’s daily percentage of positive cases.
My analysis found several errors in the medical spreadsheet provided by the Escambia County Emergency Operations Center – errors that definitely undermine the commissioner’s hypothesis. The errors occurred over a three-day period – April 15-17. On April 15, the positive results total dropped but went back up on April 16. On April 16, the total negative results jumped nearly 1500, only to drop on April 17.
Despite these errors by the EOC, the percentage of positive test results has climbed steadily. On April 7, the percentage of positive results was 5.74%. Then for two days, the EOC didn’t release the spreadsheet. On April 10, the positive percentage jumped to 6.04% and has steadily risen – except for 4/15-17 – to 7.15% by April 19.
I also tracked the new positive results received each day. The percentage for new positive results for April 19 was 9.26%. The EOC reported no results were received yesterday. FDOH reports of the 10,729 tests performed on April 20, there were 1,054 positive results, or 9.8 percent. We are very close to matching the state’s percentage.
Of course, this analysis is only as good as the data supplied by the county.
|Total Results||Positives||Negatives||YTD +||New Results||New +||Daily %|
source: Test Result Spreadsheets supplied by EOC, available on myescambia.com
Total Results = Positives+Negatives
Positive %= Positives/Total Results
New Results=Today’s Total Results-Yesterday’s Results
New Positives=Today’s Positives-Yesterday’s Positives
Daily %= New Positive/New Results