Daily test results approach state positive percentage

I have admitted that I’m a numbers nerd.  Commissioner Doug Underhill’s mass email berating himself (after all, he is the government), media and medical professional got me curious to find Escambia County’s daily percentage of positive cases.

My analysis found several errors in the medical spreadsheet provided by the Escambia County Emergency Operations Center – errors that definitely undermine the commissioner’s hypothesis.  The errors occurred over a three-day period – April 15-17.  On April 15, the positive results total dropped but went back up on April 16.  On April 16, the total negative results jumped nearly 1500, only to drop on April 17.

Despite these errors by the EOC, the percentage of positive test results has climbed steadily.  On April 7, the percentage of positive results was 5.74%. Then for two days, the EOC didn’t release the spreadsheet.  On April 10, the positive percentage jumped to 6.04% and has steadily risen – except for 4/15-17 – to 7.15% by April 19.

I also tracked the new positive results received each day.  The percentage for new positive results for April 19  was 9.26%.  The EOC reported no results were received yesterday. FDOH reports of the 10,729 tests performed on April 20, there were 1,054 positive results, or 9.8 percent.  We are very close to matching the state’s percentage.

Of course, this analysis is only as good as the data supplied by the county.

 

Total  Results Positives Negatives YTD +  New Results New + Daily %
5-Apr 2631 136 2495 5.17%
6-Apr 3025 165 2860 5.77% 394       29 7.36%
7-Apr 3038 165 2873 5.74% 13        – 0.00%
8-Apr
9-Apr
10-Apr 3619 206 3413 6.04% 581       41 7.06%
11-Apr 3634 221 3413 6.48% 15       15 100.00%
12-Apr 3789 235 3554 6.61% 155       14 9.03%
13-Apr 3898 246 3652 6.74% 109       11 10.09%
14-Apr 3975 254 3721 6.83% 77         8 10.39%
15-Apr 4327 246 4081 6.03% 352       (8) -2.27%
16-Apr 5790 282 5508 5.12% 1463       36 2.46%
17-Apr 4496 303 4193 7.23% -1294       21 -1.62%
18-Apr 4650 309 4341 7.12% 154         6 3.90%
19-Apr 4704 314 4,390 7.15% 54         5 9.26%

source: Test Result Spreadsheets supplied by EOC, available on myescambia.com

Total Results = Positives+Negatives

Positive %= Positives/Total Results

New Results=Today’s Total Results-Yesterday’s Results

New Positives=Today’s Positives-Yesterday’s Positives

Daily %= New Positive/New Results

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3 thoughts on “Daily test results approach state positive percentage

  1. Agreed, that’s our most vulnerable population and they are all clustered together. Its apparent that even though we have been social distancing for almost six weeks, it still found it’s way to the nursing homes. It was inevitable. That is the population that we need to focus resources on and protect. The rest of the county needs to get back to work.

  2. FDOH says cumulative is 10%. One of the reasons I want a county press briefing is to get an explanation of the local data. I do believe focusing on nursing homes will drive the percentage up.

  3. If I am reading this post correctly, the 9.8% positive is for one day, not cumulative, which is what the state number is on the daily post.

    Also, I wonder how the sampling population has changed over the last several weeks, as that coukd have a significant impact on the positive results. In other words, have they refined the screening process so that they are now testing those more likely to have been exposed to the virus.

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