Deep dive into COVID data for Escambia

Increasing testing didn’t lower the positivity rate.

Escambia County has joined the ranks of  the most infected COVID counties in Florida and is now considered a hot spot.

Of the nine counties with 465 or more new positives among Florida residents for Saturday, July 11, Escambia had the fewest test results entered in the system. Only Lee County had more cases per 1,000 people than Escambia.

We knew that with the long lines at UWF and other test sites for the past two weeks that Escambia County was due for a test result dump. Escambia did have more test results per 1,000 entered in the system than others on the list.

Of the 465 new cases among Florida residents in Escambia,  six were associated with nursing homes, two with correctional and the median age was 29 – the youngest median age since June 26. Hospitalizations increased to 182, up 7 according to FDOH.

Last week – July 5-11, the county had 2,658 positives for Florida residents out of 20,489 test results – 13% positivity rate. The previous week, Escambia County had 1,299 positives out of 10,438 test results – 12.4% positivity.

Increasing testing didn’t lower the positivity rate.

On June 30, Escambia County had 1,692 COVID-19 cases year-to-date for Florida residents. Last week, we had 1.57 more new cases — in one week more than the previous three and half months combined.

Nursing homes are no longer the primary source of new cases. Since June 30, only 52 of the new cases have been associated with long-term facilities – 2.7%.

Yesterday Kings County and Seattle, Washington reported only 174 new cases with 4,595 tests. Chicago had 182 positives of 3,565 tests.

Escambia has more positives year-to-date than Maine (3,539) and Vermont (1,296).


Positives Total Tests Population Cases Per 1K Test Per 1K
Dade 3561 21697    2,715,516                1.31           7.99
Broward 1826 13495    1,924,229                0.95           7.01
Orange 1335 13503    1,321,194                1.01         10.22
Lee 1243 8391       718,679                1.73         11.68
Palm Beach 1166 11012    1,446,277                0.81           7.61
Hillsborough 799 6469    1,378,883                0.58           4.69
Duval 571 6082       924,229                0.62           6.58
Manatee 470 4999       373,853                1.26         13.37
Escambia 465 4627       311,522                1.49         14.85

5 thoughts on “Deep dive into COVID data for Escambia

  1. Dear Steve, “covid denier” was a qualify to “stats,” not you, but I apologize that I didn’t more effectively communicate that, and can see why you thought I was calling you a covid denier.

    What I have been trying to convey is that we can’t entirely trust anything that’s coming out, from any source. Yes, of course there has been some bad reporting happening in either direction–it’s chaos, and chaos that has been intentionally sewn by covid-denying government officials (and yes I do mean that they are covid deniers–or, at least, spinners of the narrative of covid denial).

    There isn’t an aspect or a level of the data right now that hasn’t been warped and twisted beyond much helpfulness. The Pensacola City dashboard is the best breakthrough we have right now, and even then we have to rely on however the hospitals want to portray their circumstances.

    Just last night, a hospital worker posted a helpful explanation for why the number of beds isn’t a very good indicator, because they are having to reserve entire floors for covid patients, and assign nurses only to those floors. Once designated covid floors, they cannot be opened up for something else. Whether those beds are empty, full, or somewhere in between, they are now removed from the general hospital population. And it now it seems at least one hospital has been forced to designate a second floor.

    And still Sacred and Ascension are guarding their electives and claiming that it’s come one come all at the ER–UNLESS, of course, you are covid positive, waiting for your test results, or have covid-related symptoms. Then they are literally telling people NOT to come to the ER unless [x] (sometimes it’s extreme pain; other times it’s dire respiratory distress).

    The most dangerous thing about this is that they are giving people the idea that they *can’t* come to the ER, without clearance from a physician.

    Of course they can simply get in their cars and drive in, and have their conditions assessed. But people for the most part are disciplined to adhere to whatever rules the medical complex set.

    And now this morning we get this. I’d like to say it’s the nadir, but they just keep coming up with new levels to sink to:

    I’m sure it will all get straightened out now. Beautiful. Another level for Rick to have to fight through–and the highest level–to try to get out some semblance of the truth.

  2. Ms. Pino, please show me where I denied this virus exists. I simply provided a link to a news article wherein it was reported that hospitals in Florida stated that labs were incorrectly reporting positive test results, sometimes as much as ten times the actual number. I guess you are saying the hospitals in the story are delusional.

    Also, according to AHCA, as of 10:00 this morning local COVID hospitalizations had decreased to 183 from 195 yesterday, total available beds had increased from 23% yesterday to 27% today, and ICU beds from 3% to 10%.

  3. Dear Steve,

    Hopefully the parents of the 6-day-old baby fighting off covid in one of our area hospitals that is knee-deep playing the shuck and jive in order to keep electives open will find your denier stats helpful.

    Most people won’t. Please keep posting them, however, They provide a clear sense of what we’re up against with the delusional fugue that will have to be fought through kn order to save lives here. Your posts are most helpful for those of us trying to ascertain just how far some people have gone, or will go.


  4. As science moves forward, Gilley goes backward.

    From King’s College London via MIT Technology Review–you know, “fake news”:

    “Immunity to covid-19 could disappear in months, a new study suggests”
    Charlotte Jee, July 13 2020.

    “The study raises the prospect that, like other coronaviruses, covid-19 could reinfect people repeatedly. If that’s the case, “herd immunity” may never arrive, either through a one-shot vaccine or through community spread of the virus, as any protective antibodies would wane with time. ”

    Once again blasting to smithereens Sh*t Doug Says. Maybe Gilley can find some more taxpayer money to waste and just go ahead and start a Doug Department at the County. That way we could centralize some very important operations to Janice’s administration:

    –emergent sole source procurements
    — systematic dismantling of County staff’s due process
    –hiding pieces of paper under desk drawers
    –staging fake sanitization procedures, and
    –new, creative ways to block public records requests.

    Currently, there is way too much waste in achieving those goals. Maybe they could take this up at the Budget Workshop tomorrow.

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