Over the years, one of the most reliable polls has been Gallup. Their latest poll shows Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by a 52% to 42% margin in both of Gallup’s likely voter models. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.
According to Gallup, their interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday shows that 27% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted. Another 8% of registered voters still indicate that they plan on voting before Election Day itself.
Let’s take it a step further. If the voter turnout is expect to be 75% to 80%, then somewhere from 44% to 47% of those expected to vote will already have voted before the polls open on Nov. 4.