According to an Inweekly/Political Matrix poll of 462 likely Pensacola City voters, County Commissioner Grover Robinson has a 10.6-point lead over Pensacola City Council Brian Spencer in the race to be Pensacola’s next mayor–46.5-35.9 percent. However, 18 percent of the most likely voters are still uncertain who will receive their vote in November.
The gap between the two candidates has tightened slightly since the Aug. 28 primary, when Robinson finished with a 13.5-point lead over Spencer–34.2-20.7 percent.
| Mayor’s Race | 10-Sep Poll | Aug Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 46.5% | 34.2% |
| Brian Spencer | 35.9% | 20.7% |
| Gap | 10.6% | 13.5% |
| Don’t know candidates | 10.2% | |
| Â Undecided | 7.4% |
Spencer picked up votes in east Pensacola, Districts 1, 2, 3 and 4, shrinking Robinson’s primary margin by 11 points to 9 percentage points. The councilman has led in District 4, which is represented by Councilman Larry Johnson and the home district of Mayor Ashton Hayward. The district has 27-point swing in Spencer’s direction.
Robinson has offset those losses by receiving more votes in west Pensacola, Districts 5, 6 and 7–even leading in Spencer’s District 6 by 21 points, which is a 24-point swing. Robinson leads the westside of Pensacola by 13 points.
The Eastside has 15 percent uncertain voters, Westside 21 percent.
| District 1 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 54% | 35% |
| Brian Spencer | 36% | 21% |
| Gap | 18% | 14% |
| District 2 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 44% | 37% |
| Brian Spencer | 28% | 16% |
| Gap | 16% | 21% |
| District 3 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 48% | 45% |
| Brian Spencer | 32% | 20% |
| Gap | 16% | 25% |
| District 4 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 44% | 44% |
| Brian Spencer | 51% | 24% |
| Gap | -7% | 20% |
| District 5 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 38% | 22% |
| Brian Spencer | 33% | 15% |
| Gap | 5% | 7% |
| District 6 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 55% | 23% |
| Brian Spencer | 34% | 26% |
| Gap | 21% | -3% |
| District 7 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 38% | 22% |
| Brian Spencer | 32% | 21% |
| Gap | 6% | 1% |
| Eastside: 1-4 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 47% | 41% |
| Brian Spencer | 38% | 21% |
| Gap | 9% | 20% |
| Uncertain | 15% | |
| Westdside: 5-7 | 10-Sep | Primary |
| Grover Robinson | 46% | 23% |
| Brian Spencer | 33% | 21% |
| Gap | 13% | 2% |
| Uncertain | 21% |
METHODOLOGY:
The persons sampled were likely voters of the primary and general election cycles throughout the city of Pensacola. They were called using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system during the hours of 2- 8 p.m. Sept. 7- 10, 2018. The phone numbers called were provided by Escambia Supervisor of Elections Office. The Margin of Error for this study is +/- 4.5% with a confidence level of 95%.
