Possibly some good news

I’m a numbers guy so I began to dig a little deeper into the statistics that the Florida Department of Health as provided us.

In April, it took seven days to double the number of positive COVID-19 cases statewide and in Escambia County:

Florida – 4/1: 7,772  to   4/8: 15,698          Escambia – 4/1: 96   to   4/8: 192

However, the rate of growth has slowed over the past week.   To match the same rate growth, Florida would need to hit 31K cases tomorrow, instead we are currently at 21,367.   Escambia would need to have 384 cases by Wednesday, April 15 –at noon today, we’re at 246.

According to specimen collected data supplied by the EOC, we have a tested about 11.4 per 1,000 people in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, which is better than the New York state average, excluding NYC, of 4.9 per 1K and the national average of 1.9.

It would appear the social distancing and other mitigation efforts by the state, county and city are working.

One hot spot that needs to be completely studied is our long-term care facilities. We need all LTC residents and staff tested. The virus is being brought into the facilities most likely by employees that are asymptomatic. If they are spreading the virus in the nursing homes, then they are doing the same in the community.

However, this is purely a mathematical analysis.  We need a briefing from county, DOH Escambia and medical professionals to tell us the stories behind the numbers.  Without their input, we don’t know how accurate the statistics on FDOH dashboard are or if there are any hidden anomalies of which we are unaware.

If we want to target May 1 as the date we begin to come out of mitigation, we need to begin the press briefings so we have the data to determine how we move forward in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties.

 

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