From Political Fix Florida: Gov. Rick Scott is topping Democrat Charlie Crist by a 43-41 margin with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie getting 4 percent, according to a Mason Dixon poll commissioned by WSCV Telemundo 51 and Leadership Florida.
Scott holding a thin lead has been an emerging trend, but a closer look at some of the number show bad news for Crist. The poll, released Saturday, bases its partisan sample on party registration numbers, which means the sample is 41/37/21 (Democrat/Republican/independent).
It does not “assume a higher or lower turnout by either political party,” but that’s detached from how midterm elections work. Democrats will be the first to admit that their voters don’t usually turnout in large numbers during non-presidential elections.
Need proof? Ask Bill Clinton.
“We are not nearly as good as our Republican opponents are at showing up during the midterm elections,” Clinton said during a Friday speech at a Crist campaign event in Miami.
It means unless the Crist campaign produces record midterm turnout, the poll uses a partisan sample that almost assuredly includes too many Democrats and still has Crist down by 2-points.
The poll, like others, also found that voters don’t really like either Scott or Crist. Only 35 percent of respondents find Crist “favorable,” while 44 percent find him unfavorable. Those numbers are at 37-41 for Scott. It’s the first time Crist’s favorability number has been underwater and the first time he has trailed Scott.
The likely voter poll was conducted between September 2-4. The 625 person sample was contacted via cell phone and land-line. A breakdown of those percentages was not included.
Source: Political Fix Florida is the joint Bureau of E.W. Scripps / Tampa Tribune in Tallahassee.