Here is DPZ’s presentation to the Escambia Board of County Commissioners at the Committee of the Whole on Feb. 11:
Marina Khoury: “Thank you. So we appreciate the time and this project, it seems, is not without controversy, but we’re not a team to shy away from that. It seems to almost upset everyone a little bit, it seems–which may mean we’re sometimes doing some things, right, some things wrong for some maybe, but we’re happy to talk about it.
“But we have, however, listened carefully to your requests. And the past two months, since we appeared before you, have been productive to us. We hope that what we present to you today will please you, because we think we do have a win-win scenario–a win for jobs, a win for the community and a win for the county.
“We have heard loudly from the community, and our conversations with you have been helpful as well. And I also want to clarify for misperception out there that this has never been an either/or proposition for our team, with respect to jobs or housing, but both, especially on a site as large as this one. And because of what the marketability study proposed as well, we’ve consistently prioritized the creation of jobs and the economic impact analysis by the Haas Center, clearly speaks to the benefits of such job creation.
“Our role, we see it as being one that provides you with choices, and you will drive that choice. This site has undoubtedly been a good investment for the county, and that’s the good news.
“And the decision before you today is essentially how to ‘diversify your portfolio’– what you want for the site and your tolerance for risk and return. So my presentation, I’m going to try and keep it brief. Peter will come on the tail end of my presentation. And we look forward to a productive conversation with you today with the goal, as Terri said, of moving this project forward into phase three, which is really the implementation phase.”
Khoury: “Our presentation is organized into five topics as you see here. The project understanding is where we left off and specifically your directives to us.
Number Two are the assumptions we made moving forward. Most of these you’re already familiar with, and we’ve had discussions with many of you since then.
Number Three is how the plans have evolved since the charrette.
Number Four is obviously the economic impact of the job creation, both permanent jobs and temporary jobs. And number five are the questions we hope you can help us answer today to narrow down that selection and to commission a point, we’re happy to make a recommendation in terms of acreage, if you wanted us to, that should be devoted to commerce. But as Terri mentioned, it has some wiggle room.”
Khoury: “So here are the questions we’ll debate and discuss at the end of the presentation. I won’t read them because we’ll spend time talking about each one. We do suggest answers to help further guide the conversation, but they remain completely open to your input.
“And we have read that many of you think our team is predisposed to a mixed-use solution. That is true only to the degree that we understand the scale of this property. And the time it’ll take to develop a site, what type of environment is most likely to attract high paying jobs, and, equally importantly, what we have overwhelmingly heard the community tell us they want.
“However, we have drawn plans that we wouldn’t necessarily recommend and have evaluated them as objectively and quantifiably, and we stand by that data. Our role is to show you those options and what you want, what the community wants, and to provide you with the pros and cons of each to assist you in making that best decision.
“Additionally, we hired the Haas Center to conduct the economic impact analysis that Peter will present. The news is, as Commissioner Bergosh expected, that the annual economic impact of jobs is far reaching and compelling, and the good news for you is that you have a lot of land that you can easily accommodate 4,000 jobs and still have some land leftover. And that’s an enviable position to be in.”
Khoury: “And I apologize. This slide is slightly different only in terms of the size of the images, because I wanted to compare apples to apples, but 540 acres is very hard for non-planners or architects to grasp. So at the charrette, we presented what we call the scale comparisons, which explain to people the amount of development that such a site can accommodate.
“Essentially it’s rubber stamping different areas onto the OLF-8 site completely. So as you can see, it can accommodate 2.5 Navy Federals, that we know how 10,000 jobs, or 18 ST aerospace that each house 1600 jobs. And on the drawing on the left, you see a large part of downtown Pensacola also fits on the site. And while we’re not advocating for this level of density, or intensity, or any of those three, this is to show you the mix of uses. The confetti of uses, the different types of buildings, the numbers of blocks and streets that such a site can and should accommodate.
Khoury: “So, while the science is large enough to accommodate many goals, our number one priority has always been to design a site, most capable of attracting a minimum of a thousand high paying jobs. The economic impact is very good and very valuable, and nobody’s disputing that. We ran the impacts on 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 and 4,000 jobs on the site. And they’re not tied to any particular plans specifically, and you’ll see the figures are impressive.
“Goals two and three are linked to number one, which is to provide a solid rate of return and bring long-term value to OLF-8, Beulah and the county. And of the four plans we showed you that came out of the charrette that are not being presented today, it bears noting that the one with the least amount of acreage devoted to commerce, which was the Village Plan, could easily have accommodated 1500 jobs with the large warehouse type buildings and more jobs if it was for smaller footprints.
Khoury: “However, Escambia County does also establish other goals you’re pursuing, or should be, and your future land use element could not be clearer to establish future land use patterns that support and encourage compact mixed use urban development and support transit where it’s viable. That’s not how Beulah has developed to date. And this plan can change that and begin to set a new tone. And that’s why we’re very excited about it.
“Your growth strategy, speak to flexible planning strategies to achieve balanced growth and development. We think the plan before you does that. The future land use is intended to discourage sprawl and promote mixed use.
“And while not every site in the county should, or maybe held to that standard, OLF-8 certainly should by sheer virtue of, its size its location, and its immediate context, including the fact that Navy Federal is right there. And with respect to a mixed use development goals, improving the existing jobs/housing balance is every municipality’s goal. And this site can help you in that regard as well.”
Khoury: “So throughout the charrette, we also heard from the community and from some of you who gave us your other goals, which are listed here from number four to number nine. And there is no disagreement there. And it’s worth pausing to repeat that, everybody seems to agree on those first nine goals, which is a big task. Though number 10 is the catch. Should there be housing? And if so, how much? We’ll discuss options today, with the plans that we show you.”
Khoury: So in our early December meeting with you, these were your directives to us and I’ll speak to each of them throughout my presentation. So the first one has to do with, what is the amount of developable land? And this is about confirming the portion of a site that is developable, and to keep it consistent across all plans.
Khoury: “Commissioner Barry, we understand why there was some confusion about the fact that there were different amounts of land devoted to open space in the different ones we showed you from the charrette. So in this case, we’ve kept it at 424 acres. And as you can see, approximately 50% of the frontage along Nine Mile Road is bordered by wetlands. With GIT, we created a conservative conservation boundary line within which we don’t recommend developing for a few reasons. And mostly because it’s just cost prohibitive to fight against the site’s natural topography.
“The topography within that conservation line has considerably low elevation and respectively higher slopes as well, which are naturally stabilized. And they’re protected from erosion by the existing vegetation that exists on the site. So any changes to the forested areas would require modification to the terrain to stabilize slope. And that’s not an inexpensive thing to do.
“The wetlands, of course, would also be impacted by any changes to vegetation of topo, which could affect their lifecycle. And finally filling the low areas would reduce storm water storage, not only for this site, but also for the areas to the west, which could increase flooding south of West Nine Mile Road. So that’s why we’re not recommending developing what you see as the blue and the green zones. And that’s about 20% of the site.”
Khoury: “The next question was the economic impacts. So the new analysis you will see looks comprehensive in ways in which to gauge total value, the highest and the best use, and to understand the potential for the full economic impact for the county. The Haas Center provided that for figures number one and two that are rolled into one presentation. And number three, you have from one of our last presentations. And of course, we also think about the unquantifiable intangible, such as quality of life impacts, and long-term value creation for the community, which is harder to quantify. But it’s also a factor in how we’ve designed these master plans.”
Khoury: “So how much land should be set aside for commerce? What we struggled with since the very beginning, we want to give you as much leeway as needed by creating a framework for the site, on which you can grow or shrink the land you can devote exclusively to commerce, based on metrics and goals and timelines you decide to establish.
“But we do believe you should be judicious in your allocation of land, reserved for commerce uses alone. Are you comfortable land banking the majority of the sites for the next eight to 10 years? Or do you want to see some development happen sooner? We’re recommending a mechanism by allowing the reallocation of those land uses after a certain time has elapsed if they don’t get filled in.
“And these are very simple diagrams to explain the drawings that follow, but it’s a flexible master plan concept. So we fix what can be fixed, such as the non-developable land, which is 20%. What you see here is conservation land. We fix the amount of land to devote to the retail, which is shown here as village center, and the suggested amount of land for public amenities, such as trails, parks, post office, and maybe a school.
“The rest of the land, which totals 350 acres or 65% of the 540 acres, can be allocated entirely to commercial, entirely to residential and commercial or a mix of the two. Our challenge through zoning is will be to provide you with a master plan framework, anchored to a block typologies that can accommodate this range of land uses, but still provide the amenities that everybody agrees with. And if lots of commerce comes, the plan can accommodate. If less commerce comes, the plan can accommodate that too. And that’s what I’m going to show you.
Khoury: “So here are the block types we developed for commerce alone. Each one accommodates its own market, and that’s really what defined the different square footages that each one can accommodate. We developed a range of housing too, but that’s not shown here for now. But once you know the demand, it’s good to understand the types of uses and the different square feet per employee by job type. That’s in the appendix we have, but we looked at nationwide averages across a range of sectors and averaged them out. And that’s what you see here.
“So the takeaway is that the vast majority of the jobs out there outside distribution centers, which provide two to five jobs an acre, and that’s not necessarily what you want on the site, because they won’t necessarily attract the high tech jobs you pursue. 72 acres gets you to 1,000 jobs for warehouse buildings, much less if it’s in the form of office parks, medical devices, office condo type of buildings. In many cases, simply much less land is needed, and that’s not so surprising. It’s a wide range, but you can comfortably go for the middle range assuming you’ll attract some large warehouse types, some smaller office footprints, and a lot of stuff in between.
Khoury: “Commerce and jobs can also bring much higher return than housing, but it’s also riskier. So it was worth it for us to take the time to understand the potential external impacts that may influence the number of jobs that come to the site. Number one is the timing of the interchange. We know it’s being fast-tracked. They’re trying to fast track it, but if new jobs are dependent on that, it’s easily eight to 10 years out, conservatively.
“Two are the Triumph conditions. You know those conditions already, providing matching funding, which you’re likely to be able to do. The fall backs in case the jobs don’t come. And number three, the funding will run out and you have to be careful that doesn’t run out before its employers are secured on the site, which we’ve been told could be five to eight years out. And a reminder, of course, that the Triumph is not attached acreage. It’s attached to jobs.
“The third one is how much existing commerce market grid is actually available in Escambia County right now. And that’s been hard to pin down. There are thousands of acres even by Scott’s number. Now we understand his number, if we just take his numbers, 13% is what’s available currently. And we understand that not all that land is owned by the county. Not all of that land is close to the Interstate, but not every job requires Interstate access. And there’s a very large planned apartment district North of I-10 as well, which should be accounted for on some level.
“And lastly, looking back at historic trends and past decades, which the past decade, which is when Navy Federal came in, if you were to absolve 5% of all the total new county jobs that are coming to the site, that would mean up to 1,000 jobs over 10 years. Of course, with more aggressive marketing, more incentives, you can aim higher for 10% or even more. But I wanted to tell you what the historic trends have been. And 5% seems like a reasonable assumption for the site, and that would take us to about 1,000 jobs.”
Khoury: “Now, in terms of the plan update, what does it mean to have a flexible plan? Instead of showing you many different plans that look very different to each other, we decided to use a frame of one plan and develop multiple hybrids of each, each advocating a different amount of acreage available for commerce alone. We use the Market Plan framework as the plan, because it was the one that was ranked technically the highest by our consultants. We understand that makes the community sad because they like the Village Plan, but be that the case, there are ways in which to incorporate… to develop less land if you wanted to.
“The majority of the streets you see here would be coded into zoning and design. Any plan would be anchored to that. Well, okay. So let me show you what that means. So here you see the three plans.”
Khoury: “All are based on the bones of the market plan, with the retail along a nine mile road, with a conservation boundary preserved and with some community amenities that are consistent in all three plans to compare apples to apples. What changes is the amount of land that is devoted to commerce in each of them.
“In plan one, the commerce plan devoted the entire land to commerce, with residential maybe only introduced in the retail center area, which we know is the plan that Commissioner Bergosh is advocating for.
“Plan two is the hybrid plan that provides up to 250 acres for commerce and allocates the remainder of that land for residential development with some mixed use housing types.
“And plan three is the market plan. That’s the one that reserves about 90 acres for farmers and dedicates the rest of the land for the residential development. But what’s important to notice that these plans have a necessity and it’s up to you to help us decide what’s a reasonable amount of land to devote to commerce and maybe consider sunsetting some of the acres, if within, let’s say 10 years, 15 years, whatever you establish, that available land has not been absolved, we want to give you a framework in which then that could be given over to other uses. And I’ll show you diagrams and drawings to indicate how that works.
“And all plans show a network of parks distributed across the site. We think that’s very important. We heard from community it’s very important. We heard from Commissioner Bergosh, it’s very important. And we don’t even think [inaudible 00:16:31] as amenities. We think that they’re necessities for healthy citizenry. And in these times of COVID, it’s been proven that it’s absolutely at the forefront of what should be considered a livable place to be. And it’s currently lacking in Beulah right now. So they’re all very rich in parks.
The framework streets remain in all of these plans, as you can see, but additional discretionary streets are added depending on the way the master plan developed. So we would code for the framework. We wouldn’t code for the discretionary. Put conditions under what they look like to make sure that they work with your standards, but it’d be for each parcel developer to decide how they want to do that. The open space trail would be ceded in, as you can see. It’s the same across all of the plans, essentially. The residential portions could of course add much more if that came to be.”
Khoury: “And here, the land use is allocated by plan. The retails constant along the nine mile road and in proximity to it. They also accommodated those office spaces and jobs in multistory buildings, as I mentioned. Public amenities are two. And then, you can see that the amount of land devoted to commerce changes across each plan. You could begin with the 90 acres as shown adjacent to Navy Federal, with some frontage along nine mile road. And it could grow gradually as needed over time. You’d have to decide where to permit housing. If you want to permit housing, where to permit it, when not to permit it and whether you want to sunset some of the commerce at some point.”
Khoury: “Now, these are the modules would use and code into your zoning. In this case, I’m showing you the full range, including the housing types, the mixed use types, and the commerce plans. And these are not the type… None of the housing here is what you currently have in Beulah, because you’ve got an excess of one housing type and that’s not what’s being proposed here.
“What’s being proposed here is a smaller scale or affordable, in some respect, and definitely tailored to the… If Escambia County demographics are anywhere like the rest of the country, more than 50% of households are fast approaching one- and two-person households only. So there is a need across this country to provide for smaller units. And this plan does it. And the important thing to show you as well, we only drew three plans. The possibilities are much greater, that line in pink here, the three plans we drew, but we added options in between illustrate the growing or shrinking of the commerce only land.
“So 4,000 jobs can be accommodated in anywhere from as little as 36 acres to as much as 288 acres. But the blunt truth as we see it is that you simply do not need to allocate the 350 acres all to commerce. So why not address or take the opportunity to address the other goals that your comprehensive plan speaks to other than the jobs, which is what the community wants.
“The good news is that this site is perfectly located for that. And it’s perfectly located to become the heart of Beulah or your village center, in which a little bit of housing would go a long way to help add vitality to the retail, as well as to the potential jobs that would surround the site. And our challenge is going to be to figure out that zoning and the design standards that are imposed to ensure that buildings are held to high aesthetic standards.”
Khoury: “These drawings showcase the different types of block modules that would either be permitted, restricted, or even prohibited across some portions of the site, which you would have the flexibility to swap one out for the other f market demand shifts over the next two decades, which is what it may take to build out this site.”
Video shown: “So now I’m just going to show you a quick video that begins to show how the shrinking or expanding of the commerce uses across the site. So you would see, first, the retail center. First, there are bigger boxes along Nine Mile Road, smaller arterial where you control both sides. You see the first commerce going in, larger commerce coming in, a variety of different commerce coming in. And then you would also see like facing like. This is the full commerce plan built out. If the jobs come, great. If the jobs don’t come, there’s an ability to take out a portion and convert to residential. If you can accommodate all of the commerce needs over the next 10, 20 years, then more of it can develop for residential. And you can see how that growth, and when and if housing is introduced. In all cases, the big, obviously, park on the southwest side stays intact.”
Khoury: “So the top reason why people are fighting more development, even more so than over character’s fear of additional traffic, and that’s a very valid concern, for those who participated in the charrette, you got to listen to Mary [inaudible 00:21:14] of Nelson/Nygaard, a national award-winning transportation firm, explain the potential traffic effects of the four plans, and in particular, explain travel patterns and why they matter.
“If a site as large as this one is overwhelmingly devoted to one use, similar to the Navy Federal site, then you could expect a similar level of traffic with very high demand during those peak hours, that show predominantly in one direction of force each way, and then low demand during the rest of the day. That’s not necessarily an efficient use of the street infrastructure, that wouldn’t be used consistently across the day. And moreover, because peak hour traffic is what is used to model level of service as a street, it’s much more likely that that would trigger expansion of Nine Mile Road, which would have ripple effects that wouldn’t necessarily be good for the planning of this site.
“Alternatively, with more robust mixed use plan, a certain level of internal traffic can be expected. And the overall impact of traffic on the surroundings will be less, with the streets used more consistently during the day, but just at a lesser frequency across the day.”
Khoury: “This is my last slide before I turn it over to Peter, to say that Travis is here, can speak to the engagement efforts which we have been involved with. And I look forward to having a discussion with you, Commissioner Bergosh, over what has alarmed you in the public records, because I’m not embarrassed by any of those emails that went out and I’m happy to defend them.
“I’m going to turn the presentation over to Peter to talk about the economic impacts of job creation.”
The Economic Impact is presented in four slides: Impact.
Here is Peter Bazeli’s narration: “Unfortunately, nobody from the Haas Center was available to join us today, so I’m going to present their work and our summation of it, as it relates to, really, the two scenarios that they analyzed at our request, which were meant to really bracket densities of development.
“Sort of on the low end, a commerce oriented plan with 200 residential units and retail, and on the high end, effectively the market plan that includes far more residential but the same amount of retail, and still the commerce component. And at the end of the day, the driving factor for the ongoing annual economic impacts is the job creation that can be developed here.
“So if FloridaWest is capable of going out and recruiting 1,000, 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 or more jobs, that does create a really significant economic impact on Escambia County’s economy, and, effectively, the GDP of the County economy. And so there is a major creative benefit associated with doing that, and so that’s why all of the plans that were proposed, including these that we’ve kind of narrowed down for discussion purposes, include more than enough land to achieve that, and flexibility to add and adapt additional sites for more commerce, should there be demand for it.
“One of the key factors here that the Haas Center helped us understand is that the targeted jobs that really would qualify for Triumph funding, other state and federal funding sources because of the job creation that could be achieved, are all generally higher paying jobs. There are in sectors of the local labor force that already exist in the County, so that we can build on the existing skill set of the employment that already exists in Escambia County, and build upon that success, rather than recruiting new types of labor that don’t presently exist.
“So what they did is they created a mix of employment targeted jobs that are based upon where the County is presently, and where they think that it can grow. All of those jobs are high wage jobs in a range of sectors, from manufacturing and warehousing all the way up to high-tech types of computer programming and manufacturing. And, on average, those jobs are earning $62,000 to $63,000 per year in today’s dollars.
“What that means is that, over time, because of the nature of that employment and establishing that direct employment on site, for every 1,000 jobs that we can recruit to Escambia County from outside of the County, not just organic growth within the County itself, but new jobs that are recruited and brought in, then there’s an exponential effect here.
“And so they’ve provided, and you’ll see this chart later in the presentation, a summary that indicates that if we have a thousand jobs that are recruited that are of this targeted class, there are an additional 656 indirect and induced jobs that are created also in the economy. If there are 2000 direct jobs recruited to the site, then there are an additional 1385 indirect and induced jobs. So the power of this economic job growth initiative can be really impactful.
“At the end of the day, the targeted jobs at OLF-8 can result between $294 million per year in economic impact. If there are 1,000 jobs recruited to the site, up to 1.364 billion per year in annual economic impact to the County… if there are 4,000 jobs recruited to the site. And of course, if there are more jobs recruited, then the impact is greater. But the point is simply that within this kind of range where we’ve been targeting the planning effort, there’s a really significant annual impact that will go on in perpetuity.”
“The question is what needs to be done, from both a planning and recruitment standpoint, and what is the timing of those jobs showing up on site? And so then we have factors that come into play, like whether those jobs are reliant on the interchange, whether they are reliant on Triumph funding, whether there are other incentives that have to be extended to those types of employers. And those are really questions for you all to answer, but there is a risk profile associated with going out and trying to attract these jobs, but the reward is really significant.
“In addition to the annual economic impacts from job creation and potential tax revenue associated with retail sales, for example, which the Haas Center also measured, we asked the Haas center to examine the impacts associated with the actual construction of the buildings on OLF-8, because there’s a really significant amount of construction dollars and jobs that will be created over a generation to build this entire site out. Those jobs can start tomorrow, and they might last for 20 years or more. But the point is that, in the interim, there’s a lot of money that will be spent here actually building it out. And so, at the end of the day, the impact from those construction jobs range from approximately $837 million to $1.3 billion, depending upon whether you’re looking at the lower density, more commerce oriented plan, or the higher density plan with much more housing.
“But nevertheless, in the interim, the actual construction on site is likely to create about 5,300 direct construction jobs over the life of the build-out, with additional indirect and induced jobs totaling 7,158 jobs. And in Scenario B, which is effectively the Market Plan, the direct construction employment is about 8,800 jobs, with then plus induced and indirect employment totaling about 12,000 jobs over the life of the build-out. Again, that will change over time, the bodies on site that are actually building OLF-8 will change over time, but the total employment is estimated to be that by the Haas Center. And that, in fact, those construction jobs, in today’s dollars are estimated by the Haas Center to earn about $48,000 a year. Let’s go ahead to advance the next slide.
“So this is a summary of the Haas Centers findings, and we tried to put this into sort of baskets that were easy to understand, because the Haas Center’s analysis is very detailed and you have all of it there. We can try to answer those questions. At the top of this chart, you see the range at 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4,000 targeted jobs being created and actually being in place on OLF-8 in both scenarios, and in both scenarios, we’ve assumed that that job creation is the same. You can accommodate that level regardless of which plan is pursued.
“But let’s just take a look at the impact from 2000 targeted jobs. The impact is $614 million per year, that all of those jobs exist on the site. And those are all in today’s dollars. It’s not grown for inflation. So that’s an annual impact. If there are 3000 jobs recruited to the site, the annual impact of that is almost a billion dollars, and that’s every single year.
“The construction impacts, where we are building out the site, we’re spending dollars, we’re creating construction employment, you see in the first line under the construction header on the left under scenario A, which is primarily the commerce plan. There are about 5,300 direct construction jobs created. In scenario B, which has more housing, it’s a higher density development, there’s more construction, there are about 8,800 direct construction jobs. And between the two, the compensation is roughly the same, about $48,000 a year. The total impact from that spending and employment on the site ranges between, as I mentioned in the summary slide, about 837 million or 1.3 billion, but that has a start and an end to it. That’s for a period of time. It’s not an annual impact that goes on every year like the job initiative would be.
“We also asked them to break out the impact of retail so that you could help us understand the importance that retail space might have in your decision making related to how to plan the site. And so rather than doing what the Haas Center typically does, which is to roll up retail spending and the impacts from retail into a broader economic analysis of just people living on a site or jobs being created, we asked them to break it out. And so based upon roughly 225,000 square feet of retail space eventually being built on OLFA, which we’ve assumed is the same in both plans, could be scaled up or down. There would be about 1100 direct retail jobs created, earning roughly about $30,000 a year.
“And so the Haas Center made the point to note to us that those types of jobs, while low-paying relative to the types of targeted jobs that we’re trying to recruit to the site, they are great entry level jobs for people who are young in the economy and just starting out, trying to build skills. And they’re great for empty-nesters or retirees that are interested in earning some additional income.
“So while they are lower wage jobs, they have an important role in the economy, and the Haas Center made a point of pointing that out to us. The annual retail impact associated from that employment is $131 million.
“In addition, there’s potential tax revenue involved. And these figures exclude any state and federal tax revenue. This is only what flows directly to the county and the sub-districts. And so from construction spending and employment, the range is between $9.2 million in total, it’s not annual, it’s in total, based upon the life of construction, to $17 million approximately. But annually, as a result of the retail operation, there’s about $6.7 million in retail taxes that would be collected by the county.And the sub-districts. Let’s go ahead to the next slide.
“So this kind of distills down further the comparison, and again, this is meant to kind of provide bookends and brackets for the discussion about what’s going to get built onOLF-8, what should we zone it for, what’s the developed vision here, and what are the range of impacts that could be assumed in that scenario?
“It’s hard to understand because we have static impacts that that have a start and an end to them, but then we have annual impacts. And so I’ve kind of broken these into two categories. The static impacts are the total construction, the impact from total construction spending and employment, which I mentioned was $837 million to $1.3 billion. Then we have the tax revenue collected by the county and the sub-districts related to that employment, which again has a start and an end to it. And that’s between $9.2 million and $17 million.
“Then, in addition to that, there is the cash flow to the County. Obviously the county has incurred expenses, but the total aggregate land sales revenue from selling off the land to private developers could range between, call it $30 to $35 million in scenario A, to between, call it $50 and $60 million in scenario B. And that’s just simply due to the zoning that would be put in place in those two scenarios and that land is really only worth what you can do with it. So higher density development creates more land value.
“The annual impacts occur every single year. And so for this purpose, I just assumed 2000 jobs were created. If there are 3000, the impact would be more. And so as discussed previously, we have an annual impact of $614 million. That’s every single year. Plus the retail impacts associated with that employment of $131 million every year, and the retail tax revenue associated with the ongoing operations of that retail, and that’s an additional $6.7 million. And that’s consistent to neither scenario because the size of those components is the same.
“So we have a total static sort of one-time or over a period of time impact of, call it $880 million in scenario A, or call it $1.36 billion in scenario B. Plus, in both scenarios, ongoing annual impacts of about $750 million a year, assuming that all of those jobs are onsite. So there’s a significant, positive impact associated with the job creation. And at the end of the day, the construction spending is also something to really consider.
“This chart we thought was helpful to understand the overall impact of job creation on the site, which is that for every 1000 jobs, 2000 jobs, this shows the induced and indirect additional employment that flows through the economy as a result of that job recruitment effort. So if we end up with 4,000 targeted jobs actually appearing on OLF-8 and occupying space, there are additional 3,332 jobs that are created elsewhere in the economy, all in Escambia County, as a result of having recruited those jobs. So the value proposition associated with this impact analysis has to also consider the potential impact on creating new households, creating these flow throughs in the economy related to this employment creation.